02:38

PETER GEORGE,

REPORTER

In a small town south of Washington DC lives a man who would be president of Iraq.

He's waiting for two events -- the fall of Saddam Hussein and a call from the Iraqi people.

02:55

BRIGADIER GENERAL NAJIB AL-SALHI (TRANSLATION)

If the people call on me to take on such a responsibility, I'm prepared to shoulder it.

03:05

PETER GEORGE

Across the Atlantic waits the man who would be king.

44 years in exile, he waits with mounting anticipation for the moment of his return to Baghdad.

03:18

SHARIF ALI BIN AL-HUSSEIN

It's something that one has been working towards all my life.

And to actually finally have it in one's sight is an indescribable feeling.

03:32

PETER GEORGE

And the man who would be powerbroker -- power walking through life, racing to bring about the ultimate confrontation.

03:43

AHMAD CHALABI, IRAQI NATIONAL CONGRESS

Well, we make no bones about it.

We want United States help to remove Saddam from power.

03:51

PETER GEORGE

Amongst Iraqi exiles, there's growing euphoria.

They're counting down the days until America strikes and new leaders emerge to take Iraq into the future.

But those who would lead are at loggerheads, consumed by infighting, divided by religion, tribe, ethnicity, politics and by lust for power.

04:16

DANIELLE PLETKA, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE

Every single one of them believes that he alone, you know, is the -- is the anointed next leader of Iraq.

And -- that just doesn't work.

04:33

PETER GEORGE

Yet from this fractured leadership, America is trying to cobble together a coalition that will convince the world it has a plan -- any plan at all -- to stop Iraq falling into chaos if it succeeds in ousting Saddam Hussein.

CAPTION

The Morning After

PETER GEORGE

9,500km from Baghdad and hidden in the anonymity of a working-class town in middle America, an Iraqi general sits at a kitchen table and plots the fall of Saddam Hussein.

Brigadier General Najib al-Salhi, Chief of Staff, First Mechanised Division, Fifth Corps of the Iraqi Army, until he defected seven years ago.

05:33

BRIGADIER GENERAL NAJIB AL-SALHI

(TRANSLATION)

I personally don't think Saddam would have the opportunity to use chemical weapons.

05:42

PETER GEORGE

He uses a borrowed map to explain how America can invade his own country.

The details he saves for chats he says he has with the CIA and the Pentagon.

The general believes Iraqis will need a man of sound military experience to hold the country together in the immediate aftermath of Saddam.

06:06

BRIGADIER GENERAL NAJIB AL-SALHI

There's a real danger that if a professional military officer without an instinct for democracy or human rights grabbed power, he'd just hold on to it because the region has a history of encouraging dictatorships.

06:37

PETER GEORGE

Al-Salhi sees himself as a future contender as president of Iraq.

But for now, he does his own chores, prefers anonymity, chooses his meeting places carefully and is fussy about who he talks to.

Even in American suburbia, he knows his ambitions can be dangerous.

He's already had a warning from Baghdad in the form of a videotape sent to him after his defection.

It showed his sister being raped.

07:10

BRIGADIER GENERAL NAJIB AL-SALHI

Anyone who speaks out against Saddam is seen as a threat and as an enemy.

07:24

PETER GEORGE

At 51, al-Salhi's days of riding tanks are over.

But he thinks his military background would help him become a good president

He modestly states a recent opinion poll on an Internet site for Iraqi exiles chose him as the preferred leader, but adds the poll was taken off the web by jealous rivals.

07:48

BRIGADIER GENERAL NAJIB AL-SALHI

That's why if we establish a real democracy in Iraq and everyone has enough freedom to decide who should lead them in the future, I think I'd have a good chance.

08:19

PETER GEORGE

As plans for an American jihad against Saddam advance, some in the administration argue only a military strongman could hold Iraq together in the aftermath.

Al-Salhi's name is bandied about, if only because the most prominent exiled general is facing a war crimes investigation in Denmark over the use of chemical weapons in the Iran-Iraq War.

08:46

BOB BAER, FORMER CIA, MIDDLE EAST

He could go back and set up a military government to replace Saddam, which is the most logical thing to do if you're really interested in holding this country together.

What you don't -- can't introduce into Iraq today is democracy.

It would be total chaos.

09:03

PETER GEORGE

Any talk of an American-sponsored military strongman raises alarm bells amongst most opposition figures, particularly Shiah Muslims, like Hamid al-Bayati, who comprise 60 per cent of the Iraqi population and who have suffered at the hands of a Sunni-dominated army.

Al-Bayati represents the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, a Shiah opposition group with Iranian backing.

09:33

DR HAMID AL-BAYATI, SUPREME COUNCIL OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION IN IRAQ

- [PG] So the idea that Iraq needs a strongman is complete anathema to you, is it?

- Exactly so. I think this is a myth and a strongman will cause chaos, as Saddam did. And then we will see another war because there is tension between Iraq and neighbouring countries. If we have a new weak regime, then we might have more troubles.

10:07

PETER GEORGE

Another city, another continent, another climate and another plan for a brighter Iraqi future.

10:20

SHARIF ALI BIN AL-HUSSEIN

This is King Faisal II, the last king of Iraq.

He was assassinated when he was 23 years old.

I was a young child at the time. I was just almost two, in fact.

10:33

PETER GEORGE

Sharif Ali bin al-Hussein.

Spirited out of Baghdad in 1958 in the wake of his uncle's assassination, he's never been back home.

10:42

SHARIF ALI BIN AL-HUSSEIN

It was the beginning of -- of the bloody history, because it undermined the legitimacy of the government and it enabled anybody who had the opportunity to get on a tank to assume government.

And the problem then became that that was the only way to stay in power and there has been a direct line to Saddam Hussein

11:10

PETER GEORGE

Sharif Ali is a 42nd-generation descendant of the Prophet Mohammed.

Like General al-Salhi in America, he sees himself as someone around whom a shattered nation can coalesce.

11:22

SHARIF ALI BIN AL-HUSSEIN

- Some form of figurehead, some form of uniting influence is needed in a country that has been divided by Saddam Hussein.

- [PG] And for you, an obvious possibility, at least then, must be the monarchy?

- Well, from the feedback that we get from inside Iraq, it gives us a great deal of confidence that that is what is required by the Iraqi people. That is what they want.

11:47

DR HAMID AL-BAYATI

- [PG] Do you think that's a likely outcome or not?

- I don't see it as a likely outcome. As we know, the monarchy was demolished in 1958. It's difficult to restore monarchy in 2002.

12:06

PETER GEORGE

In the eyes of America's European allies, the inability of opposition leaders to agree on a shape for a future Iraqi government is a critical flaw.

And it's a failure acknowledged by one of Washington's most influential proponents of ousting Saddam.

12:29

RICHARD PERLE, CHAIRMAN, US DEFENSE POLICY BOARD

- [PG] But isn't it an almost fatal situation to be possibly so close to the toppling of Saddam and for no-one to have emerged like that?

- Well, I think we should have started on this a long time ago. And the political strategy has lagged behind our thinking about how to deal with Saddam in a physical sense. But I think now we will begin to see the pace quicken and there will be more political activity rather than less.

12:58

PETER GEORGE

In London, a rare and extraordinary gathering of men who prefer to live in the shadows.

Under American pressure to put on a public exhibition of unity, opposition leaders are meeting to announce the formation of a new military council intended to take control of the Iraqi Army when Saddam falls.

13:21

SHEIK MOHAMMED MOHAMMED ALI, IRAQI NATIONAL CONGRESS

- [REPORTER] So how do you feel about talk of having a military man in the interim for some period until elections are organised? Would that worry you?

- Well, if this military man is working for a political role, well, he is most welcome.

13:42

PETER GEORGE

One of the leaders of this new council is General al-Salhi, visiting from America to make his pitch.

But for all the show of unity, there are boycotts.

One general accuses the new military council of simply grabbing power from a well-established outfit that he leads.

14:04

GENERAL FAWZI AL-SHAMARI

- I was, you know -- decided not to go because we already established that two years ago.

- [PG] So if there was already a military council established, why did they decide to try and set up another one?

- I think right now, some politicians are playing a role and using some factions here. And I think that's not a healthy condition for us. We have to be united.

14:34

PETER GEORGE

Back at the conference, there's more confusion for observers trying to read the winds of the exile movement.

Jordan's influential Prince Hassan turns up unexpectedly and causes a stir that will ripple around the Arab world.

And with a kiss, he seems to bestow his blessing and support on his cousin Sharif Ali, the man who would be King of Iraq

With this one appearance, the Prince has broken Arab unity opposing America's plans for Iraq, to the embarrassment of his own government and to the delight of the exiled opposition.

15:16

PRINCE HASSAN OF JORDAN -- SPEAKING TO MEETING (TRANSLATION)

It was a surprise to be invited to observe this meeting.

15:26

AHMAD CHALABI

Prince Hassan is a man of enormous influence and standing in the Arab world and internationally and we welcome his presence.

15:50

PETER GEORGE

Nowadays, Bob Baer watches with a degree of cynical detachment as Iraqi opposition leaders ride the wave of American threats to dispose of Saddam.

BOB BAER

- It really turned into a beautiful day, didn't it?

- Yeah, it really did.

- How much farther could it be from the Middle East, sitting right here? It's nice weather. We're not getting shot at. There's no coups going on.

16:11

PETER GEORGE

A 20-year veteran of the CIA's Middle East operations, Baer reflects the views of the many pragmatists of the CIA and the State Department.

They're mounting a rearguard action against the influence of what they see as the unrealistic ideologues urging the Bush Administration to act without any clear idea of the consequences.

16:35

BOB BAER

What everybody knows in Washington is that there's no endgame plan.

Who's going to replace Saddam? They don't have the slightest idea.

What's going to happen to the minority Sunni community? Nobody knows.

Do you have to go in and destroy the military which would create a vacuum in Iraq? No-one's dealing with that.

But you have a -- almost a segregated class in Washington, which they call the neo-conservatives, who have made up their mind without any facts or any intellectual backing what they want to do.

It's impossible to put democracy into Iraq. That country's never had a democracy. It's going to take years.

17:14

DANIELLE PLETKA, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUE

Bob Baer, with his experience on the ground -- and until you said that, I had a lot of respect for him -- should know that the Iraqi people can do better than that.

17:24

PETER GEORGE

Danielle Pletka, Vice-President, Foreign and Defense Policy, American Enterprise Institute, a neo-conservative think tank that is helping drive the US agenda on Iraq.

These neo-cons have a direct line into the White House through Vice-President Dick Cheney and powerful backers like Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz in Defense who see Iraq as the next step in the War on Terror and an opportunity to establish a democratic pro-Western beachhead in the Middle East.

18:01

DANIELLE PLETKA

- You either stand up for what is right and you work for it and you try and attain it, with the understanding all the while that you may not get there and that it takes a lot of political capital and that it takes a lot of serious commitment and that you may not be 100 per cent up to the job in the end. But I mean, to fight for nothing? Why?

- [PG] If you may not be up to it in the end, that means…

- Well, you may not get a perfect result.

- [PG] You have to live with the prospect of failure.

- You have to live with the prospect…

- [PG] The prospect of failure will be a very expensive one, won't it, in people's lives?

-          I think getting rid of Saddam is a success in and of itself.

18:37

BOB BAER

When Saddam falls, if he ever does, if he doesn't die in his bed, widespread violence is going to occur.

The chances of civil war are very high.

And whoever is spewed up from this chaos, we don't know who it is.

18:54

RICHARD PERLE, CHAIRMAN, US DEFENSE POLICY BOARD

Well, I don't know quite how you'd respond to that.

Maybe Mr Baer knows something that I don't know.

19:00

PETER GEORGE

Richard Perle, one of Washington's principal neo-cons, Chairman of the influential US Defense Policy Board.

19:08

RICHARD PERLE

- I simply think he's wrong about that.

- [PG] Why?

- Well, he's guessing that -- that removing Saddam will be difficult. I think it will turn out to be much easier than many people think

- [PG] But you're guessing also, aren't you?

- Yes, of course. We're both guessing. I just think he's made the wrong guess.

- [PG] One may be right and one may be wrong.

- Well, one of us is going to be right.

19:34

PETER GEORGE

In such an overheated climate, it's hardly surprising that the Americans are confused and frustrated by the babble of conflicting Iraqi opposition leaders, each struggling to make their voices heard.

By some counts, there are now more than 50 opposition groups, each claiming support from within Iraq, but none able to prove it.

19:56

DANIELLE PLETKA

Everybody wants to get the access, everybody wants to get the pat on the head from the Vice President or the President or the Secretary of State, and so they're all fighting about that and they'll continue to fight about that until the United States puts its foot down.

Uh, wait, I have another cliche coming -- knocks a few heads together and says, you know, "Either get along or get out."

20:15

HOSHYAR ZEBARI, KURDISTAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY

To bang heads together, to produce one single leader, I doubt if it would work in the Iraqi context.

- [PG] It'd be a failure?

- It would be, um -- it would be a failure and, er, it has to be done through other means than banging heads.

20:34

RICHARD PERLE

Sometimes it takes banging heads together.

We should be looking for someone who can bring the Iraqi people together, who can be a moral force as well as a political figure.

20:44

PETER GEORGE

Richard Perle reckons he's found just such a man in his friend and political ally Ahmad Chalabi -- the most controversial figure in the Iraqi opposition movement.

Leader of the Iraqi National Congress, or INC -- an opposition umbrella group formed 10 years ago -- Chalabi struggles daily to stop the group fragmenting and to hose down constant personality clashes.

Today in London he's dealing with another general threatening to form yet another breakaway military council -- this one reportedly designed to preserve Sunni influence in a post-Saddam army.

It's a closed-door meeting that ends with a display of unity that is only skin deep.

21:39

MAJOR GENERAL WAFIQ SAMARAI, FORMER HEAD IRAQI MILITARY INTELLIGENCE (TRANSLATION)

The opposition is fragmented with differing intentions and aims.

They can't agree on one core goal.

Without strong control they will simply take this disease of disunity back into Iraq.

21:59

PETER GEORGE

Urbane, frenetic and with the determination of a zealot, Chalabi is by turns loved and loathed by US powerbrokers.

22:10

AHMAD CHALABI

We are difficult allies.

We have an agenda for the liberation of our country and we have a relationship with the United States Government in all its aspects.

We have different views sometimes on how to proceed with the liberation of our country.

They have some, er, some traditionally-held views which we believe are erroneous and no longer valid.

22:45

PETER GEORGE

But amongst the neo-cons and Republican right in Congress, Chalabi's found a natural constituency of powerbrokers who believe the US should have destroyed Saddam after the Gulf War.

He's spent 10 years drip-feeding them with reports from defectors about Saddam's plans to develop weapons of mass destruction, and more recently, with alleged links between Saddam and the al-Qaeda network.

And he's won the powerful American Jewish lobby by holding out the prospect of a democratic Iraq signing a peace deal with Israel.

23:24

RICHARD PERLE

- Ahmad Chalabi has certainly led the opposition for many years, has led it in a very positive direction -- that is with a, um -- a policy that calls for the establishment of democratic institutions and the renunciation of weapons of mass destruction and a positive approach to the peace process in the region. Now, you can't get a better platform than that from the point of view of any Western liberal democracy.

- [PG} So he is the West's man in that sense?

- I think he very much reflects Western values, which is not surprising -- he has a PhD in mathematics, trained in the West. And at the same time, he comes from a distinguished Iraqi family and has devoted his life to trying to produce a unified opposition to Saddam Hussein.

24:17

PETER GEORGE

The INC still likes to remain discreet about its location, but unlike the backroom operations of other opposition groups, Chalabi's built a formidable base in London largely funded by the US Government.

There's a smooth public relations department and lobbyists who know how to sell the cause.

24:41

INC STAFFER (READING EMAIL)

- "In Finland every development concerning the Iraqi situation is keenly followed and 'Keskisuomalainen' would be eager to hear the authentic voices of the Iraqi opposition in its pages."

- [CHALABI] OK, we accept.

24:59

INC STAFFER (SPEAKING ON PHONE)

If the President justified the link between al-Qa'ida and Iraq, the US could get blanket permission by the Senate to go to war, which is great news.

25:10

PETER GEORGE

It was from the Washington office, with endless meetings in the boardroom, that Chalabi, the neo-conservatives and their friends in Congress parlayed the opposition's greatest coup in 1998.

They forced a reluctant Clinton Administration to accept the Iraq Liberation Act -- a law that made support for Saddam's opposition official US policy.

25:41

DANIELLE PLETKA

He's a pest.

He gets in because he fights to get in because he makes the connections he needs to make to get the access he needs to get to get the profile for the cause, and he's really serious about that and you have to admire it.

25:59

PETER GEORGE

Such success is all the more remarkable because Chalabi is deeply distrusted in a deeply divided administration.

Detractors in the State Department and the CIA accuse him of over-selling the INC's capacity to provide leadership, to gather useful intelligence and to command an insurrection from within Iraq with American military assistance.

26:25

BOB BAER

The support from the professionals is -- is -- is very -- I mean, there is none.

I mean, the CIA, as I understand, has cut off contact with Chalabi -- Ahmad Chalabi, the leader of the INC.

Uh -- they have infrequent contact with the opposition, and it's just to figure out if anything new appears.

But the CIA has stated, and on good grounds, that the opposition alone cannot get rid of Saddam Hussein. It's impossible.

And to say today it's all changed, and that suddenly the opposition has sterling intelligence and a capability of leading an insurrection, is a fantasy.

27:08

RICHARD PERLE

- [PG] Why then the disapproval of the State Department and the CIA of Dr Chalabi?

- I think he's too independent for their tastes. The CIA likes people that it can put on the payroll and simply instruct, and the State Department, uh -- has similar tendencies. And, uh -- Ahmad Chalabi speaks his mind. It's one of the reasons why he's a leader.

27:28

AHMAD CHALABI

We make no bones about it -- we want United States help to remove Saddam from power.

We are not acting in an irresponsible way. We want to remove Saddam.

Now, Congress has said, "Help those people inside Iraq."

There is the Iraq Liberation Act, which says the United States policy is to help those Iraqis remove Saddam from power and establish democracy in Iraq.

That's the intent and the language of the Iraq Liberation Act.

27:57

PETER GEORGE

Compounding distrust in Washington is distrust of Chalabi amongst Iraqis themselves who are uneasy about his deep ties with the Americans.

28:10

DR HAMID AL-BAYATI, SUPREME COUNCIL OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION IN IRAQ

- The INC undermined the reputation of the opposition when they received public American money, and when they received American training. We are independent. We want to be independent.

- [PG] So you see the INC and Mr Chalabi as, to some extent, a puppet of the State Department, of the CIA, of the -- of the Pentagon?

- Not necessarily so, but if an organisation receives American money, then they have to comply with their conditions. And right now, the only organisation we left in the INC are the Kurdish movements. The nationalists is outside, like the INA, the Islamists are outside, the leftists are outside.

28:56

AHMAD CHALABI

Everyone wants to have their point of view, but my own way -- the paramount aim for me is to build a consensus of the Iraqi opposition forces, and to build this consensus for the benefit of the Iraqi people towards democracy.

29:16

PETER GEORGE

More divisive still, there's serious opposition to Chalabi's gung-ho attitude towards US military intervention to topple Saddam.

29:26

DR HAMID AL-BAYATI

We believe that America shouldn't invade Iraq. We have an alternative strategy.

We told the Americans that we believe that the Americans should work through the international legitimacy, which is the UN resolutions to protect Iraqi people.

And then Iraqi people will be able to overthrow the regime, as they did in 1991. They were nearly overthrowing the regime, but the Americans decided to stand with Saddam against the uprising of 1991.

29:54

HOSHYAR ZEBARI

- Unlike many exile groups or leaders who have no responsibilities, we have a responsibility towards three-and-a-half million people, and the Kurdish leadership cannot afford to make any more mistakes.

- [PG] Can you assess for me the problem of disunity amongst the Iraqi opposition?

- Most of the opposition groups are not based inside the country -- like the Kurds, for instance. Therefore, they lack credibility in the eyes of the Iraqi people. And the other reason is really there are too many chiefs and very few Indians, as they say.

30:58

PETER GEORGE

From Europe to the Middle East, the disunity within the Iraqi opposition and America's failure to articulate a cohesive strategy to stop Iraq fracturing in civil war if Saddam falls is causing deep unease.

In Jordan, a long-time friend of the US, there is despair at the consequences of the superpower trying to impose its will on the region.

31:25

SHAHER BAK, MINISTER OF STATE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS, JORDAN

- What would happen to Iraq? Would it integrate into three states?

- [PG] Do you worry it would disintegrate?

- Well, very. Disintegrate Iraq into three states…

- [PG] And is that a serious concern?

- That's a very serious concern, naturally. Well, what would happen to the system of a country, which is an important country, which we hoped that it would play a moderate stabilising factor in the region? It would become sort of this factor of destabilising the area, all over the region.

- [PG] Well, some would say that it's already a destabilising factor in the region…

- Well, it's a political argument which you can put it the way you want. The question is, is the bad thing you know better than the things which you don't know?

32:13

PETER GEORGE

What's known as 'the Arab street' -- public opinion -- is already deeply suspicious of US intentions because of America's unswerving support for Israel in the conflict with the Palestinians.

And beyond that, Arab economies and confidence are still reeling from a decade of events that include the Gulf War and the aftershocks of September 11.

Arab traders, as good a litmus test as any, despair at the trend to more conflict.

32:46

MAN

Our economy will be bad if there is a war.

There is a relation between Iraq and Jordan by trading. And if there is a war, they will stop all trading.

32:57

SHAHER BAK

This military action could have very serious negative consequences on the state of Iraq, on the Iraqi people themselves and on the neighbouring countries.

33:12

PETER GEORGE

As for the Iraqi opposition in exile, Arab opinion is at best cynical, at worst derisive -- particularly for Ahmad Chalabi, who's best remembered in Jordan as the man whose bank collapsed in a major financial scandal 13 years ago.

33:29

LABIB KAMHAWI, POLITICAL ANALYST, JORDAN

The Americans have been trying to pump life into this opposition for two years now and they have failed.

This is a mockery. It's not opposition. It's a bunch of thugs. Some of them are convicted even in Jordan.

The head of the opposition assembly, Mr Chalabi, is sentenced in Jordan for syphoning maybe more than $200 million out of the bank that he was managing.

So you're talking about people who lack the ability, who have no base in their own homeland.

34:00

SHAHER BAK

Well, you know Ahmad Chalabi is wanted here, so we don't trust him.

34:05

PETER GEORGE

Wanted back in Jordan, that is, to serve a 20-year jail sentence imposed by a military court over the 1989 collapse of the bank he owned.

Jordan's Central Bank says he left debts amounting to the equivalent of 10 per cent of Jordan's economy at the time.

It was a notorious case that still evokes controversy in financial circles at all levels.

34:30

MOHAMMED SAID NABULSI, FORMER GOVERNOR, CENTRAL BANK OF JORDAN

The criminal proceedings that established the criminal acts of Petra and Chalabi were also translated through civil proceedings which condemned Chalabi and his family and others to an amount of almost half a billion dollars.

34:52

AHMAD CHALABI

- No, that's a false claim. The military court made the judgement. We were not permitted to defend ourselves. We were tried in absentia and every co-defendant with me on any charge was exonerated. In fact, the governor of the Central Bank made it his own mission to try to engineer a collapse of the bank. We withstood this.

- [PG] This is Mr Nabulsi?

- Yes, he thought that I was responsible for his dismissal as governor of the Central Bank in 1985.

- [PG] So this is a personal vendetta, you say?

- And he continued to bear the scars. I have no vendetta with him.

35:34

MOHAMMED SAID NABULSI

This is the total sum of the investigation committee's reports.

35:40

PETER GEORGE

The Governor rejects claims of vendetta and he has tomes not just from the court proceedings but of independent and government investigations as testament to the draining of the bank's accounts.

35:53

MOHAMMED SAID NABULSI

There is no question whatever in my mind because most of the embezzlement and the fraud actions were made directly by him and in the interests of himself, his family and other institutions outside the country that he established in Lebanon and Switzerland.

36:15

AHMAD CHALABI

If my aim was enrichment, if my aim was to acquire wealth in this ill-used way, then why would I go and risk my life and put my family and myself in this extreme danger and withstand all these public attacks, rather than go and enjoy the ill-gotten gains that I was supposed to have made?

36:48

PETER GEORGE

In the Arab world, the stain of a very public financial scandal is permanent.

But it doesn't matter a damn to his American boosters.

36:58

DANIELLE PLETKA

- But it is absolutely immaterial. I mean, it's unfortunate…

- [PG] Well, it it has to be material if you see him as a leader and a spokesman of the Iraqi cause.

- No. It doesn't matter. You pick a person for a cause and you go forward for their ability to keep the group together and for their commitment to that cause, and you view them all the while as a transitional figure that either will or will not be able to prove themselves to the Iraqi people.

37:26

PETER GEORGE

No-one knows just how Chalabi or the rest of the opposition forces are viewed from Baghdad.

But American neo-cons whip up the image of benign ripples from a Western-style democracy flowing from Iraq into neighbouring dictatorships, like another one of George W Bush's 'axis of evil' nations -- Iran.

37:48

RICHARD PERLE

- It will give tremendous hope to those who are in similar situations, who are ruled by people they never chose, in a manner that they despise.

- [PG] These, of course, would be dictators who are as much America's friends in the Middle East as they are enemies.

- Well, they, uh -- this -- this –

- [PG] The Saudis, for instance.

- This will include a number of -- of regimes, certainly the Iranian regime. The mullahs would be removed tomorrow if you had a free vote in -- in Iran.

- [PG] But the Saudis also.

- Well, I don't know about the Saudis.

- [PG] Possibly the Kuwaitis.

- I don't know about the Saudis or the -- or the Kuwaitis.

38:27

PETER GEORGE

US strategists may not wish to face the prospect that a free vote for Iraqis on the morning after Saddam could even present an opportunity to the mullahs of Iran.

Iraq's 60 per cent Shiah community, with its religious and political ties with Teheran, could easily swamp the Sunni Arab vote, while the Kurds in the north also have political ties with the Iranians.

38:57

DANIELLE PLETKA

- [PG] And could the United States stomach a leader that came from a possibly Teheran-leaning Shiah?

- That's a very interesting question. I mean, I guess if you're in for a dime, you're in a for a dollar, and you should probably stand up for the things you believe in. In other words, you should stand up for democracy.

I think we have to recognise that if the Shiah are going to have a role in this, which they are and they must, that the Iranians are going to have an interest in this.

Do we want the Iranians to have a controlling interest? No. No question. We don't want the Iranis to have a controlling interest.

To the contrary, we want Iraq to be the exemplar for Iran, and then get rid of those guys.

39:35

PETER GEORGE

Amidst such uncertainty grows a conviction on all sides that George W Bush can hardly afford to back down now on his threats to get rid of the man who, less than 20 years ago, was lauded and supported by America as a bulwark of the region.

Saddam's people are certainly taking the threat seriously.

39:58

DR SABAH YASSIN, IRAQI AMBASSADOR, JORDAN (TRANSLATION)

- [PG] Is it your belief that no matter what Iraq says or does now, that George Bush is determined to move against the President of Iraq?

- Yes, we think so. No matter how much Iraq cooperates with the UN and Security Council. It's a new development in international relations when a US president decides he's in charge of changing regimes around the world.

40:31

RICHARD PERLE

- The combination of Saddam Hussein and weapons of mass destruction is a threat that is too serious to go unanswered, and the only plausible answer is to remove him from office.

So I believe that the decision has been made by the American president that that will be the policy of the United States.

- [PG] So it's no longer a question of if but when?

- It's a question of when.

41:08

PETER GEORGE

'When?' is the question that preoccupies hundreds of thousands of Iraqi exiles across the globe as they await with a mixture of anticipation and apprehension America's decision to launch its assault on Saddam.

Most Iraqis do not believe Saddam's had his last bark, or last bite.

They know him well. They know his wily resistance and his ability to split his enemies in the West and the Iraqi opposition itself.

42:16

PETER GEORGE

Back in a town somewhere in America, far from the front line, opposition figures remain so wary that it's taken several weeks to arrange this meeting through an intermediary with another former general.

GENERAL FAWZI AL-SHAMARI

-[PG]  Hello, I'm Peter George, ABC Australia. Nice to meet you.

- How are you?

- [PG] Do you feel insecure here? Do you think there really is a threat?

- No, I'm secure, but we have to be cautious because Saddam Hussein is following everybody.

42:47

PETER GEORGE

This is a critical, dangerous, but inspiring time, says General al-Shamari.

So it's high time the opposition puts aside its differences and starts to work with unity for the common cause.

43:00

GENERAL FAWZI AL-SHAMARI

- They are very sincere to overthrow the regime, but they only think we need just to defeat the selfishness within ourselves and build a bridge of trust among us, they will do the job.

- [PG] When you talk about selfishness amongst yourselves, what do you mean?

- Some people still have an attitude to work individually and…

- [PG] Is that because each one wants to be the next leader of their nation?

- Right, right.

- [PG] Is it a bit of a danger, though, that the factional nature of Iraqis in exile, the politicians and the military people, means that it will undermine efforts to both get rid of Saddam and also to rebuild the country afterwards?

- Right. I agree with that.

43:57

PETER GEORGE

Many believe America's already set off on its crusade against Saddam, and that getting rid of him may even prove the easy part of the job.

Cobbling together a new leadership strong enough to hold this fractious, oil-rich and strategically important nation together is a more difficult proposition, and it's hardly begun.

The evidence is that military plans for a march on Baghdad are detailed and well advanced.

But the planning for what happens next seems no more substantial than a desert breeze.

44:52

ENDS