MATTHEW CARNEY: Today is the climax of Ashura - the holiest ceremony for Shi'ite Muslims. Thousands have come from all over Iran's capital, Tehran, to see a re-enactment of the battle that split the Islamic world into Shi'ites and Sunnis. In the 7th century, Sunni Muslims slaughtered Imam Hussein, grandson of the Prophet Mohammed, and his Shi'ite followers. The Shi'ites have had a bloody history of repression and sacrifice, but they rose up in Iran in 1979 and the mullahs have been ruling here ever since. While the war rages across the border, it's from here in Iran that America may face its greatest opposition to its plans for a new Iraq. In this crowd are many Iraqi Shi'ites driven from their homeland by Saddam Hussein. 60% of Iraqis are Shi'ites and for the exiles here, these rituals have added meaning.
HAJ SALIH GULSHAM, IRAQI EXILE: (Translation): Ashura is important for all Muslims, especially for Shi'ites, who are loyal to the Prophets family. Those who were exiled from Karbala and Holy Atabat are more concerned than others. Those who were born in Holy Atabat and lived there and attended its assemblies and ceremonies, its processions and funerals, must be more concerned than those who havent seen it or know nothing about it.
CARNEY: The Iraqi Shi'ites continue well into the night. For them, it's a celebration of freedom. An act of defiance against Saddam Hussein who's been persecuting them for years. The Iraqi dictator killed 500,000 Iraqi Shi'ites and exiled a million more.
HAJ SALIH GULSHAM, IRAQI EXILE: (Translation): Saddam is not a Muslim or even a human being. He has no commitment to the values of humanity. A Muslim is one who is sparing with his hand and mouth but Saddam is oppressive, ruthless, licentious, a lecher and a tyrant to a far greater extent than people might imagine, or than the diplomats might realise both around the world and in the political arena.
CARNEY: On the outskirts of Tehran lies Dowlat Abat, where 50,000 Iraqi Shi'ites with Iranian help have built a town for themselves. Here they can say what they couldn't say in Iraq.
MAN #1: Saddam is a criminal. Foreigners and Arabs alike know him through his crimes during the Iraq war. I was a prisoner. I spent 10 years in jail. When Bush attacked, I escaped to Iran. At the first strike, I fled to Iran.
MAN #2: Saddam murdered 12 members of my family. He even executed my mother. She was living in Baghdad. He killed her in her home. History has never seen a criminal like Saddam.
CARNEY: Ayatollah Hakim is the leader of the Iraqi Shi'ites. Hakim opposed Saddam's Baath socialist regime and called for an Islamic state. He was imprisoned and managed to escape to Iran where he's been based for 23 years. Since then, he has survived seven attempts on his life orchestrated by the Iraqi dictator, and five of his brothers have been executed by Iraqi agents.
AYATOLLAH HAKIM (Translation): I was arrested and then imprisoned. I was given a life sentence in Iraq without having seen a judge or a lawyer or even going through the simplest court procedure. I spent 18 months in jail where I was subjected to various types of torture during the period of interrogation and throughout my incarceration. Then there were mass liquidations in Iraq of my dearest friends and brethren. The regime had enacted a law which sentenced to execution anyone making the call to Islam, even though Iraq is a Muslim country. They made the law retrospective, applying it to those no longer making the call to Islam. The law resulted in the deaths of about 50,000 persons in Iraq, including dear friends who were my colleagues.
CARNEY: Hakim has real power as the representative of the 12 million Iraqi Shi'ites. He's looking forward to returning and resuming leadership of his people.
AYATOLLAH HAKIM (Translation): Naturally, I love Iraq because it is my country. It is also a country with many sacred places which we revere and hold sacred and which I hope to be able to visit. For the past 23 years Ive been prevented from visiting them and visiting my country and prevented from meeting up with my relatives, my clan, my friends, the holy men all these things. Also, my birthplace, where I studied. All these things strongly evoke ones emotions and feelings around these issues, which represent ones whole identity and existence.
CARNEY: Hakim is supported by the mullahs here in Iran, and that's why the Americans mistrust him. They're afraid the Shi'ite leader wants to set up an Iran-style theocracy. Despite once calling for an Islamic state in Iraq, Hakim now says he has a different vision of his country's future - democracy.
AYATOLLAH HAKIM (Translation): At this particular moment in time, with tyranny and despotism dominant in Iraq, I saw it as my religious, ethical and political duty to undertake the comprehensive task of changing this dictatorial, sectarian and racist regime now ruling Iraq into a regime based on the opinions of the Iraqi people.
CARNEY: But the Ayatollah doesn't support America's war to remove Saddam Hussein. Hakim says he will fight any American military administration set up in post-war Iraq. He says this would be an occupation of his country.
AYATOLLAH HAKIM (Translation): Our forces, as you know, are popular forces. They're from the core of the Iraqi people. We expect the Iraqi people as a whole to resist in this situation or else it will be considered a religious war. Seen as such, it would have serious ramifications.
CARNEY: These are not idle threats. This is the Badr Brigade, Ayatollah Hakim's army of about 15,000 well-trained and equipped soldiers. They are based in and backed by Iran. To stake his claim on post-war Iraq, Ayatollah Hakim has moved 5,000 of these troops into Iraqi Kurdistan and also into positions in southern Iraq. The Americans have denounced the moves but Hakim says it's his right to put his soldiers anywhere on Iraqi soil.
AYATOLLAH HAKIM (Translation): Kurdistan is Iraqi land and weve been there for 13 years. Its not a recent thing.
CARNEY: There's a long history of mistrust between the Americans and the Iraqi Shi'ites. In the 1980s, America supported Saddam against Iran during the Iran-Iraq war - one of the bloodiest and longest conflicts of the 20th century. Iraqi Karim Waez fought with the Iranians against Saddam. On the front line, he was one of 100,000 people gassed by chemicals that America helped supply.
KARIM WAEZ (Translation): In summer, burning red spots appear. In winter, the skin dries up and cracks. When the burning sensation comes, I cant stand anything.
CARNEY: Karim says he will never trust America again.
KARIM WAEZ (Translation): They're the ones who made him strong and it was Saddam who attacked Iran. They supported him, then they attacked him. They supported him an now theyll attack him. Support him then attack him. And you have a misunderstanding now? I dont know Glory to God.
CARNEY: American policy was reversed during the Gulf War of 1991 when Washington actually encouraged the Shi'ites to rise up and liberate themselves from Saddam Hussein. An Islamic republic was declared, with Ayatollah Hakim as its leader.
ALL CHANT: With our souls and our blood, we'll protect you, O Hakim!
CARNEY: But the Shi'ites were massacred by Saddam after the Americans failed to support them. Here in Karbala, the Shi'ites had taken refuge in the holiest site in the Shi'ite world. Saddam did the unthinkable. He bombed the shrine, killing hundreds.
NURSE (Archive)(Translation): They're bombing the people, civilians... Theyre bombing everything. They bombed us with chemicals. Theyre exterminating the people. Its genocide. We cant cope with the injured. Theyre bringing the injured from everywhere. From everywhere. There are too many dead and were overwhelmed with the injured. We cant cope with the injured and the dead.Even the Jews didnt do anything like this.
CARNEY: To finish off the Shi'ite uprising, Saddam senT in his hitman Ali Hassan al-Majid. Known as 'Chemical Ali' for his success at gassing the Kurds, Majid stamped out all Shi'ite opposition in southern Iraq. Given this history, it's no surprise that America's so-called 'army of liberation' won't be welcomed by the Iraqi Shi'ites. Sheikh Hammoudi is Ayatollah Hakim's political adviser and envoy to the Americans. He says that if America does not respect their right to rule, they will mobilise their networks within Iraq against the Americans.
SHEIKH HAMMOUDI, AYATOLLAH HAKIMS POLITICAL ADVISER (Translation): After the uprising, due to the regimes weakened control over the security and political situation in Iraq, and under the direction of Ayatollah Hakim, small jihad groups started to form in the cities and in rural areas, in the villages, and within the clans, Jihad groups started to form inside Iraq, all over Iraq, from Basra to Mosul These groups cooperate with one another. We dont have direct, ongoing contact with them but they take their directions from Ayatollah Hakim.
GEORGE W. BUSH, US PRESIDENT (Archive): We will tear down the apparatus of terror and we will help you to build a new Iraq that is prosperous and free.
CARNEY: George Bush may be telling the world about democracy, but Iraqi Shi'ite leaders say the President is not practising what he preaches. They say America has totally sidelined them in its plans for post-war Iraq.
SHEIKH HAMMOUDI (Translation): The American Administration, in general... deals with the Iraqi issue in a manner which attempts to sideline the elements or factions or groups which represent the Iraqi people. It deals with them in meetings or through correspondence but when it comes to the field and the real action and the issue of running the country and so on, the American administration sidelines these elements. In fact, sidelining them gives a negative impression, indicating that it will not work closely with the representatives of the Iraqi people.
CARNEY: Ayatollah Hakim warns that if an American administration stays more than a few months, they may be inviting terrorist attacks.
AYATOLLAH HAKIM (Translation): Sensitivities will be aroused. It will also fling the door wide open to the forces which can be termed extremist and which might react by carrying out acts of a violent nature. This will result in actions and reactions and eventually lead to a state of insecurity. And whatever his experience in Iraq's affairs a military governor will be unable to control the security situation in Iraq, which will naturally tend to chaos and anarchy and might result in acts of vengeance because they wont be able to control the situation. All these things harm them greatly and also harm us as Iraqis and the whole region.
CARNEY: The war for the Americans might be easy to win, but keeping the peace is going to be a lot harder.
HAJ SALIH GULSHAM, IRAQI EXILE: (Translation): Ashura is important for all Muslims, especially for Shi'ites, who are loyal to the Prophets family. Those who were exiled from Karbala and Holy Atabat are more concerned than others. Those who were born in Holy Atabat and lived there and attended its assemblies and ceremonies, its processions and funerals, must be more concerned than those who havent seen it or know nothing about it.
CARNEY: The Iraqi Shi'ites continue well into the night. For them, it's a celebration of freedom. An act of defiance against Saddam Hussein who's been persecuting them for years. The Iraqi dictator killed 500,000 Iraqi Shi'ites and exiled a million more.
HAJ SALIH GULSHAM, IRAQI EXILE: (Translation): Saddam is not a Muslim or even a human being. He has no commitment to the values of humanity. A Muslim is one who is sparing with his hand and mouth but Saddam is oppressive, ruthless, licentious, a lecher and a tyrant to a far greater extent than people might imagine, or than the diplomats might realise both around the world and in the political arena.
CARNEY: On the outskirts of Tehran lies Dowlat Abat, where 50,000 Iraqi Shi'ites with Iranian help have built a town for themselves. Here they can say what they couldn't say in Iraq.
MAN #1: Saddam is a criminal. Foreigners and Arabs alike know him through his crimes during the Iraq war. I was a prisoner. I spent 10 years in jail. When Bush attacked, I escaped to Iran. At the first strike, I fled to Iran.
MAN #2: Saddam murdered 12 members of my family. He even executed my mother. She was living in Baghdad. He killed her in her home. History has never seen a criminal like Saddam.
CARNEY: Ayatollah Hakim is the leader of the Iraqi Shi'ites. Hakim opposed Saddam's Baath socialist regime and called for an Islamic state. He was imprisoned and managed to escape to Iran where he's been based for 23 years. Since then, he has survived seven attempts on his life orchestrated by the Iraqi dictator, and five of his brothers have been executed by Iraqi agents.
AYATOLLAH HAKIM (Translation): I was arrested and then imprisoned. I was given a life sentence in Iraq without having seen a judge or a lawyer or even going through the simplest court procedure. I spent 18 months in jail where I was subjected to various types of torture during the period of interrogation and throughout my incarceration. Then there were mass liquidations in Iraq of my dearest friends and brethren. The regime had enacted a law which sentenced to execution anyone making the call to Islam, even though Iraq is a Muslim country. They made the law retrospective, applying it to those no longer making the call to Islam. The law resulted in the deaths of about 50,000 persons in Iraq, including dear friends who were my colleagues.
CARNEY: Hakim has real power as the representative of the 12 million Iraqi Shi'ites. He's looking forward to returning and resuming leadership of his people.
AYATOLLAH HAKIM (Translation): Naturally, I love Iraq because it is my country. It is also a country with many sacred places which we revere and hold sacred and which I hope to be able to visit. For the past 23 years Ive been prevented from visiting them and visiting my country and prevented from meeting up with my relatives, my clan, my friends, the holy men all these things. Also, my birthplace, where I studied. All these things strongly evoke ones emotions and feelings around these issues, which represent ones whole identity and existence.
CARNEY: Hakim is supported by the mullahs here in Iran, and that's why the Americans mistrust him. They're afraid the Shi'ite leader wants to set up an Iran-style theocracy. Despite once calling for an Islamic state in Iraq, Hakim now says he has a different vision of his country's future - democracy.
AYATOLLAH HAKIM (Translation): At this particular moment in time, with tyranny and despotism dominant in Iraq, I saw it as my religious, ethical and political duty to undertake the comprehensive task of changing this dictatorial, sectarian and racist regime now ruling Iraq into a regime based on the opinions of the Iraqi people.
CARNEY: But the Ayatollah doesn't support America's war to remove Saddam Hussein. Hakim says he will fight any American military administration set up in post-war Iraq. He says this would be an occupation of his country.
AYATOLLAH HAKIM (Translation): Our forces, as you know, are popular forces. They're from the core of the Iraqi people. We expect the Iraqi people as a whole to resist in this situation or else it will be considered a religious war. Seen as such, it would have serious ramifications.
CARNEY: These are not idle threats. This is the Badr Brigade, Ayatollah Hakim's army of about 15,000 well-trained and equipped soldiers. They are based in and backed by Iran. To stake his claim on post-war Iraq, Ayatollah Hakim has moved 5,000 of these troops into Iraqi Kurdistan and also into positions in southern Iraq. The Americans have denounced the moves but Hakim says it's his right to put his soldiers anywhere on Iraqi soil.
AYATOLLAH HAKIM (Translation): Kurdistan is Iraqi land and weve been there for 13 years. Its not a recent thing.
CARNEY: There's a long history of mistrust between the Americans and the Iraqi Shi'ites. In the 1980s, America supported Saddam against Iran during the Iran-Iraq war - one of the bloodiest and longest conflicts of the 20th century. Iraqi Karim Waez fought with the Iranians against Saddam. On the front line, he was one of 100,000 people gassed by chemicals that America helped supply.
KARIM WAEZ (Translation): In summer, burning red spots appear. In winter, the skin dries up and cracks. When the burning sensation comes, I cant stand anything.
CARNEY: Karim says he will never trust America again.
KARIM WAEZ (Translation): They're the ones who made him strong and it was Saddam who attacked Iran. They supported him, then they attacked him. They supported him an now theyll attack him. Support him then attack him. And you have a misunderstanding now? I dont know Glory to God.
CARNEY: American policy was reversed during the Gulf War of 1991 when Washington actually encouraged the Shi'ites to rise up and liberate themselves from Saddam Hussein. An Islamic republic was declared, with Ayatollah Hakim as its leader.
ALL CHANT: With our souls and our blood, we'll protect you, O Hakim!
CARNEY: But the Shi'ites were massacred by Saddam after the Americans failed to support them. Here in Karbala, the Shi'ites had taken refuge in the holiest site in the Shi'ite world. Saddam did the unthinkable. He bombed the shrine, killing hundreds.
NURSE (Archive)(Translation): They're bombing the people, civilians... Theyre bombing everything. They bombed us with chemicals. Theyre exterminating the people. Its genocide. We cant cope with the injured. Theyre bringing the injured from everywhere. From everywhere. There are too many dead and were overwhelmed with the injured. We cant cope with the injured and the dead.Even the Jews didnt do anything like this.
CARNEY: To finish off the Shi'ite uprising, Saddam senT in his hitman Ali Hassan al-Majid. Known as 'Chemical Ali' for his success at gassing the Kurds, Majid stamped out all Shi'ite opposition in southern Iraq. Given this history, it's no surprise that America's so-called 'army of liberation' won't be welcomed by the Iraqi Shi'ites. Sheikh Hammoudi is Ayatollah Hakim's political adviser and envoy to the Americans. He says that if America does not respect their right to rule, they will mobilise their networks within Iraq against the Americans.
SHEIKH HAMMOUDI, AYATOLLAH HAKIMS POLITICAL ADVISER (Translation): After the uprising, due to the regimes weakened control over the security and political situation in Iraq, and under the direction of Ayatollah Hakim, small jihad groups started to form in the cities and in rural areas, in the villages, and within the clans, Jihad groups started to form inside Iraq, all over Iraq, from Basra to Mosul These groups cooperate with one another. We dont have direct, ongoing contact with them but they take their directions from Ayatollah Hakim.
GEORGE W. BUSH, US PRESIDENT (Archive): We will tear down the apparatus of terror and we will help you to build a new Iraq that is prosperous and free.
CARNEY: George Bush may be telling the world about democracy, but Iraqi Shi'ite leaders say the President is not practising what he preaches. They say America has totally sidelined them in its plans for post-war Iraq.
SHEIKH HAMMOUDI (Translation): The American Administration, in general... deals with the Iraqi issue in a manner which attempts to sideline the elements or factions or groups which represent the Iraqi people. It deals with them in meetings or through correspondence but when it comes to the field and the real action and the issue of running the country and so on, the American administration sidelines these elements. In fact, sidelining them gives a negative impression, indicating that it will not work closely with the representatives of the Iraqi people.
CARNEY: Ayatollah Hakim warns that if an American administration stays more than a few months, they may be inviting terrorist attacks.
AYATOLLAH HAKIM (Translation): Sensitivities will be aroused. It will also fling the door wide open to the forces which can be termed extremist and which might react by carrying out acts of a violent nature. This will result in actions and reactions and eventually lead to a state of insecurity. And whatever his experience in Iraq's affairs a military governor will be unable to control the security situation in Iraq, which will naturally tend to chaos and anarchy and might result in acts of vengeance because they wont be able to control the situation. All these things harm them greatly and also harm us as Iraqis and the whole region.
CARNEY: The war for the Americans might be easy to win, but keeping the peace is going to be a lot harder.