ENGLISH SCRIPT FOR ”COLD WAR II”

[NARRATOR]
For these Polish children the old Soviet T-34 tank is just a playground. They're too young to re-member Poland as a member of the Warszaw Pact. They never felt the fear of nuclear war. They have grown up in a Poland which is a member of the European Union and NATO.
We are in the northern part of Poland, in Gronowo, a dusty little borderpost between Poland and the Russian enklave Kaliningrad, near the Baltic sea coast.
This post is part of the EU outer border so the checking is very thorough.
This border is also part of NATOs eastern frontline and just a few km's away are two big Polish army bases.

[NARRATOR]
The Polish border guards warn us not to film the Russian side, although there's not much to see. The Russians also keep their military bases a few kms away from the actual border.
The two young Polish border guards Damian and Martin are on patrol. We are not allowed to in-terview them, but they say they don't really remember when Poland was part of the Warszaw Pact and the enemy was NATO and the West.
[Radoslav Sikorski/Former Defence Minister, Poland- ENGLISH]
(While in office I had a map in my study, signed by general Jaruzelsky in 1970, with the plans for the invasion of Northern Germany and Denmark.)
(archive: Russian military leaving Poland 1991)
[NARRATOR]
Radoslaw Sikorski remembers Russian soldiers and equipment leaving Poland and the no longer existing East Germany in the beginning of the 1990's. A humiliating retreat, camouflaged by blaring military marches. Back to a Russia which was no longer a superpower, but a huge, poor country in chaos.
On the train, among tanks and other equipment, were also the SS20 nuclear missiles that had been stationed in Poland during the cold war - aimed at the West.
(Walkie-talkie)
[NARRATOR]
Most Poles remember the feeling of relief when the foreign troops and weapons had finally left Poland.
But now the Poles will one more time experience foreign soldiers and equipment on Polish soil - but this time American soldiers and American rockets.
The United States have offered to place an American base with anti-missile rockets in Poland as part of the gigantic Anti-missile shield that the US is building to protect itself from the threat of missile attack. While the border guards are checking the last part of the border into the Baltic Sea the Polish government is negotiating the details of the deal with the Americans.
[Radoslav Sikorski/Former Defence Minister, Poland - ENGLISH]
("The decision for Poland is how to react to an offer from our most important ally, the United States" )
[NARRATOR]
The Americans wish to place exactly ten siloes with interception rockets and 300 American op-erators on a military base in the northern part of Poland.

[NARRATOR]
The base in Poland and a radar facility in the Chech Republic will be the European part of a hu-ge American anti-missile shield project that has so far cost 700 billion US Dollars and will end up being the biggest and most expensive military project in history.
The idea is to create a sort of advanced technological protective umbrella over the US. All mis-siles fired against the US from rougue states are to be tracked and shot down before they reach their target.
The idea of a protective missile shield in space came while Ronald Reagan was president.
[Ronald Reagan/President USA 1981-89]
("Isn’t it time we began curing the world of the nuclear threat?" )
[NARRATOR]
The project was nicknamed "Star Wars" even though the official propaganda tried to sell it as the "Peace Shield".
(Archive: American propaganda cartoon from the 1980’s )
[NARRATOR]
Back then the technology never really worked, but under George Bush the project came back on the agenda and huge investments were made.
The missile shield will consist of radar and anti-missile rockets on facilities in Hawai, Alaska, Ca-lifornia - the Thule Air base in Greenland - and in Europe, where radar in the Chech Republic and the rockets in Poland are supposed to track and intercept rockets from for example Iran.
(Moscow)
[NARRATOR]
This plan has provoked Russia. The Kremlin has already been worried about NATOs expansion into eastern Europe, US military bases in former Soviet Republics and the US policy in the Mid-dle East. But - from a Russian point of view - anti-missile rockets in Poland, just on the other side of the border from Russia, is just too close.
On a security conference in Munich in February Russian president Vladimir Putin used harsh language to describe how he saw it.
[Vladimir Putin/President, Russia - RUSSIAN]
("This will lead to an arms race. Such a dominant use of force encourages the proliferation of nuclear weapons.")
[NARRATOR]
Americans in the audience were chocked.
[John McCain /Senator, USA - ENGLISH]
(I thought the speech was very aggressive... )
[Joseph Lieberman/Senator, USA - ENGLISH]
(I thought we were beyond that kind of rhetoric... )
[Sergej Rogov/The USA-Canada Institute, Moscow - ENGLISH]
("Putins speech in Munich was a bombshell. Many didn’t like it, but it is clear that Russia is back and wants to protect its national interests. It cannot be ignored." )
[NARRATOR]
Alexander Rahr is the Russia expert for the German Association for Foreign Policy in Berlin. He was not surprised at Putins words.
[Alexander Rahr/ German Association for Foreign Policy, Berlin - ENGLISH]
("Putin started using that kind of language after the orange revolution in Ukraine. He felt - rightly or wrongly - that the US and the West saw Russia as a new enemy, a new rival, in Europe and maybe globally." )
[Archive: Red Square, Moscow 1989]
[NARRATOR]
Memories of the cold war were brought back when several high ranking Russian generals threat-ened that Poland would become an aiming point for Russian missiles or bombs, should the plans ever materialize.
After 16 years of ups and downs in Russian-American relations, the temperature is now below zero.
[Sergej Rogov/The USA-Canada Institute, Moscow - ENGLISH]
("Russian-American relations are in a very bad shape. Probably they have reached the lowest point since the cold war. Both sides are unhappy. In the USA they critizise Russian foreign and domestic policy. Many Russians think that America is conducting unfriendly policy towards Rus-sia, building a missile defence shield against Russia, expanding NATO into the former Soviet re-publics - to encircle Russia. So it looks very much like during the cold war.")
(Warszaw)
[NARRATOR]
This marker, in the middle of the Polish Capitol Warszaw, shows that the distance from here to Moscow and from here to NATOs Headquarters in Brussels is exactly the same.
With the American missile-shield project Poland is again right in the middle of the big game.
[Wojciech Luczan/Editor, Polish military Magazine ”Raport”]
("I don’t think the Polish public has yet understood that the way the Russians are speaking is in fact a return to cold war terminology, frases and arguing. Yes it is.")
[NARRATOR]
The former Warszaw Pact country is today a very active member of NATO with soldiers in both Afghanistan and Iraq. For the Americans Poland is a perfect choice - since it is considered to be one of the most pro-American countries in Europe.
[Alexander Rahr/ German Association for Foreign Policy, Berlin - ENGLISH]
(“Poland typically became a member of NATO, EU and the West in order to get protection. Pro-tection against Russia, the former foe. Poland doesn’t trust Europe to provide this kind of protec-tion so they will basically do anything Washington says in order to get this protection.”)
[NARRATOR]
But when it comes to American rockets, the Polish population is not quite as eager as their gov-ernment. many still fear Russia.
[Norbert/ Warszaw - POLISH]
(We should definately not have it here. Countries like Russia are against. It reminds me of Amer-ica and Cuba. Repeting history, we don’t need such a conflict.)
[Agata /Warszaw - POLISH]
(Excellent, I reckon it will be good for Polish security. It will certainly be good. )
[Tomasz /Warszaw - POLISH]
(One should be afraid of Russia. It's always been the case and always will be.)
[NARRATOR]
According to the latest poll 53% of the Poles are against placing American anti-missile facilities in Poland. So the government is keeping a low profile.

[Wojciech Roszkowski /Member of the European Parlament for Poland - ENGLISH]
(It’s too early to talk about the details. These negotiations are very sensitive so it is clear that they have to be kept from the sight of the public - at the moment.)
[NARRATOR]
Washington claims that Poland has been picked for technical reasons only - and the Americans simply don't understand Russias concern.
[Michael O'Hanlon/Brookings Institute, Washington - ENGLISH]
(Russia is being unreasonable. Russia has nothing to fear from the west. The idea that the west should attack Russia is a silly notion in the minds of old style KGB apparatniks or old fashion style generals. Russia's being silly.)
[NARRATOR]
But Putins speech in Munich did made an impact - and a more cautious strategy is now being considered.
[Michael O'Hanlon/Brookings Institute, Washington - ENGLISH]
(Putins speech was troublesome and thats why I'm conceding that perhaps we're better off de-laying this, long enough to let Putin and Bush - who may get along OK in person, but are polaris-ing for the whole western relation with Russia - let them get out of office.)
[NARRATOR]
But only delaying the decision to deploy the rockets, not changing it.
[Michael O'Hanlon/Brookings Institute, Washington - ENGLISH]
(I very much hope we can avoid a situation where Russia is permanently so hyper-nationalistic that it feels it has to dominate eastern europe. 8.43 And that it has to feel paranoid about each and every defence decision by the west. 8.48 - I'm not prepared to accept that that's likely or to let that kind of a Russia tell us what decisions to make.)
[Alexander Rahr/ German Association for Foreign Policy, Berlin - ENGLISH]
(The rhetoric is like in the cold war. On both sides. On almost every global issue there is rivalry, misunderstanding, irritatioan and open hostility between Washington and Moscow.)
[Archive]
[NARRATOR]
We're still far from the old cold war and the threat of nuclear devastation. But the weapons of the cold war and "Mutually Assured Destruction"still exist.
[Sergej Rogov/The USA-Canada Institute, Moscow - ENGLISH]
(This balance still exists today, the numbers are smaller, but Russia and USA have thousands of missiles capable of destroying each other.)
[NARRATOR]
The American missile-shield could become a pretext for the Russians - like in the bad old days. Former defense Sikorski is convinced they are already boosting the military.
[Radoslav Sikorski/Former Defence Minister, Poland - ENGLISH]
(I think this issue will give Russia a welcome pretext to political action and to upgrade their mili-tary facilities. Russia is arming rapidly - admittedly from a low base, but our estimate is that the Russian defence budget has grown by 350% over the past 5 years.)
[NARRATOR]
But is the US and Russia really heading for a new arms race, a new cold war?
(soundbite - let's go, let's go!)
[Sergej Rogov/The USA-Canada Institute, Moscow - ENGLISH]
(Some people in the US say that Russia is doomed to be the enemy of the US. And that it would be better to finish Russia off while she is still weak, before she has regained her strength.
Some people in Russia say, OK we lost the cold war, so now that the USA is in trouble, let’s win back what we lost.)
[Alexander Rahr/ German Association for Foreign Policy, Berlin - ENGLISH]
(The problem is that many people in Russia and the USA still see each other very confronta-tional and they don’t trust each other. Because - historically - they have not had the experience of a positiv cooperation.)
[Sergej Rogov/The USA-Canada Institute, Moscow - ENGLISH]
(So we are maybe - if we don’t get real negotiations - in the beginning of a vicious circle of action and reaction where both sides will again be engaged in a defensive-offensive arms race.)
[NARRATOR]
Back on the border between Poland and Russia.
The little Hotel here in the fishing village of Nowa Pasweka is the last Polish house before Kalin-ingrad. And with Russia only one kilometer away, the problem of American rockets on Polish soil is literally very close to Ryszard Doda.
[Ryszard Doda /Hotel owner, Poland - POLISH]
(There are some rumours, Russians have been announcing installation of mid-range rockets in the Kaliningrad district, return of the nuclear fleet, submarines to Pilawa. Let's not fool our-selves - Russia is still a superpower.)
[NARRATOR]
Ryszard Doda has seen more war than most. Not just cold war - as a soldier in the french Foreign Legion he fought in the first Gulf War in 1991 and the civil wars in Somalia and Rwanda. But he had enough and moved to this remote corner of Poland because it is quiet and peaceful. Or was...
[Ryszard Doda /Hotelowner, Poland - POLISH]
(In my opinion Poland won't benefit from this. It gives us and Europe nothing. It is yet another point on the map where the Americans want to secure their business.)
[NARRATOR]
Through history the Poles have had many foreign military facilities in the country. For example the castle Malbork here, which was a stronghold for the German Knights in the Middle Ages. But that kind of presence has a price...
[Wojciech Roszkowski /Member of the European Parlament for Poland - ENGLISH]
(The politicians still dio not realize how dangerous this game is and how far this decision goes. It is a question of installing american defense mechanism on Polish soil for the first time. People do not realize how important it is, but it will come. They should not think only about how many bil-lions of dollars it will bring to Poland, but also how dangerous it is to be the aiming point for somebodys missiles.
[NARRATOR]
Does Russia really want to wage a new cold war - and does she really have the resources for a new arms race?
[Sergej Rogov/The USA-Canada Institute, Moscow - ENGLISH]
(Russia is no longer a global competitor of the US. We no longer aim to install communism in Patagonia or Denmark or other places. Russia at the moment has no ideology - whether that is good or bad - so there is no ideological conflict. There are geopolitical considerations and military concerns.)
[NARRATOR]
But those considerations and concerns can be serious enough. Parts of the eastern Europe that Russia still considers their area of interest, today belong to NATO. And neither the new NATO-members - nor the USA - are willing to put up with any kind of pressure from Russia.
[Michael O'Hanlon/Brookings Institute, Washington - ENGLISH]
(Russia - to the extent that it wants to reestablish dominance over eastern Europe - is doing something fundamentally illegitimate. Fundamentally inappropriate. At odds with all that NATO is supposed to stand for in securing the security and sovereignty of its member states. And the last thing we can do, is give in to this kind of thinking. If this is a permanent Russian way of thinking then we are headed for a permanent cold peace - it won't be a cold war, but a cold peace.)
END

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