Vesuvius shots | Music | 00:00 |
| NICHOLSON: For 35,000 years, the volcanic system of Mount Somma - and the mountain it spawned -- Mt Vesuvius, have erupted in violent cycles that are still a mystery. | 00:19 |
| Vesuvius is the world's most monitored volcano, but for those watching, it's still a guessing game. | 00:33 |
| Is the mountain at the end of a deadly cycle that started with the 79 AD eruption that wiped out Pompeii and Herculaneum? Or is it at the beginning of a new cycle that could trigger a super eruption? | 00:48 |
| Music | 01:05 |
| BENEDETTO: I would quote it as extremely dangerous, | 01:22 |
Benedetto | because there are about half a million people living at immediate risk in this area. | 01:26 |
Naples | Music | 01:29 |
| BENEDETTO: Only 24 hours time or 48 hours time, this will be a tragedy, everyone will be killed here. | 01:32 |
| Music | 01:39 |
Nicholson walks with Benedetto on track/ Naples below | BENEDETTO: Scientist Benedetto de Vivo is a maverick. He believes the Italian authorities in charge of safety around Vesuvius have got it all wrong. Telling the locals they'll have several weeks warning of a major eruption. | 01:47 |
| After studying Vesuvius for more than three decades, he thinks the government scientists and civil emergency planners are playing politics and putting people's life at risk. | 02:07 |
| BENEDETTO: I think | 02:25 |
Benedetto. Super: | not to take into consideration the worst case, the worst case , the worst scenario, I think is a criminal attitude. And I think this is a very, very big responsibility on the scientists. And there is too close a connection between research and politics. | 02:27 |
Benedetto and Giuseppe in university office | NICHOLSON: The halls of Naples University echo seven centuries of learning. | 02:46 |
| It's where Benedetto de Vivo and vulcanologist Giuseppe Romaldi buck the system. | 02:58 |
| Music | 03:06 |
| NICHOLSON: The two scientists believe Italians are not prepared for the worst case scenario -- | 03:09 |
Pyroclastic flow footage | that is a massive eruption followed by a pyroclastic flow. The flow is a fiery wall of rock, ash and gas. It burns at 1000 degrees centigrade and can move up to 700 kilometres an hour. | 03:17 |
| When Mt Unzen in Japan erupted in 1991, it consumed everything within five kilometres of the peak. Most residents were evacuated but more than 40 people perished. BENEDETTO: There is no way to save your life | 03:36 |
Benedetto and Nicholson | from a pyroclastic flow. The only way is to, is to stay away from this area. | 03:54 |
Aerials. Pollena | NICHOLSON: And there's the rub. Pollena is one of 15 towns around the slopes of Vesuvius in an area called the Red Zone . | 04:00 |
| The towns all run into each other and into the heavily congested areas they adjoin. | 04:11 |
| If there's an eruption with just a day's warning people will not be able to escape unless buildings are demolished and roads widened. | 04:19 |
| BENEDETTO: They are so narrow, the roads, and the logistics is so terrible that if you block one or two roads, nothing moves at all. | 04:33 |
Benedetto. Super: | They say there will be the military coordinating all this, but I mean when you have, when you start the alarm and you have 500, 600 thousand people which start moving there is no army that can stop the chaos that will be created. | 04:40 |
Men talking |
| 04:56 |
| NICHOLSON: It's the talk of the town -- the civil defence authorities recently held evacuation exercises here, trying to coordinate emergency services. But only a fraction of the population took part - around 1500 people. | 05:01 |
| MAYOR: It's a plan that the people consider with some scepticism. | 05:19 |
Mayor of Pollena | The roads are not wide enough. It's obvious that the evacuation plan with its present structure is a partial evacuation plan. We agree with Professor de Vivo on this aspect. | 05:24 |
Building sites | NICHOLSON: Pollena's mayor Agostino Maione says the Red Zone is saddled with dangerous overdevelopment. | 05:36 |
| MAYOR: Between the sixties and the seventies, there was a frightening level of illegal construction. | 05:45 |
Benedetto and Guiseppe in university office | NICHOLSON: And that's where the politics come in. | 05:55 |
| De Vivo and Romaldi say the red zoning is political and without a scientific basis. | 06:00 |
Map showing Red Zone | They say the Red Zone should be an 11 kilometre circle around the volcano. Instead it's eight kilometres, but it follows municipal boundaries. Under construction on the edge of the red zone is the biggest hospital in southern Italy. | 06:09 |
Hospital construction | It's well within the danger zone and will house thousands of patients and workers. It's also in the path of the lava from the last eruption. | 06:28 |
Benedetto | BENEDETTO: I think it is a totally crazy decision probably dictated by political opportunity. | 06:43 |
Hospital construction | If you have a pyroclastic flow, if you are in the high risk area I don't think that Vesuvius will respect the political opportunity with respect to the border of municipalities for example. | 06:49 |
Vesuvius | Music | 07:01 |
| NICHOLSON: Vesuvius binds the heart and soul of the Campania region. It's the source of myth and romance, wealth and tragedy. | 07:09 |
Pompeii ruins | Below Vesuvius, the people of modern day Pompeii are as relaxed as their ancestors were two thousand years ago. Their city sits side by side with the ruins of old Pompeii -- the wealthy Roman city destroyed by a pyroclastic flow following the 79 AD eruption. | 07:26 |
| There was no warning. Indeed, many didn't realise the mountain in front of them was a volcano. It had been sleeping for eight centuries. | 07:50 |
| Music | 08:00 |
File footage. Eruption | NICHOLSON: In 1944, Vesuvius erupted again, a low energy explosion that expelled the river of lava that is still visible where the hospital is being built today. | 08:04 |
| It wiped out whole villages, but everybody was able to get out of the way. | 08:21 |
Nicholson with Raphele/ File footage continues | That's the memory Neapolitans like Raphele de Tuoro have of an eruption. | 08:30 |
| He remembers when he was 15 watching a river of lava destroy all of his town. | 08:39 |
| RAPHELE: We saw how the buildings fell and it was fun for us as children. For those who lost their houses etcetera, it was an enormous blow. | 08:48 |
| We were innocents at the time. | 09:01 |
| Nicholson: Are you afraid of Vesuvius? RAPHELE: Absolutely not. Absolutely no fear. | 09:06 |
| And the people are convinced it will be many decades before anything happens. They don't believe it will happen from one moment to the next. | 09:12 |
| Music | 09:27 |
Naples traffic | NICHOLSON: The extent of the danger to Naples was revealed by de Vivo and American scientists more than 20 years ago. But the politicians of the regional government of Campania have been slow to acknowledge it. | 09:35 |
Luigi Noccera | Environment minister Luigi Noccera believes Naples is as ready as it can be. LUIGI: We have seen that we have seven days to make our territory safe. | 09:49 |
| NICHOLSON: Some scientists say you might just have one day's warning. What happens if that's the case? | 10:04 |
| LUIGI: I hope that these scientists are making a big mistake saying that it could happen in just one day. If this were true there is no chance for the inhabitants of the slopes of Vesuvius or those in the bordering area. | 10:10 |
Vesuvius looming behind town | NICHOLSON: Yet he acknowledges the politicians gave the green light to building the massive Ospedale del Mare. | 10:34 |
| LUIGI: It's clear that it seems contradictory for a public agency to build a hospital in an area at risk. | 10:42 |
Luigi Noccera | You must understand that as long as the population remains there we also have the right and the duty to look after the citizens in that area. | 10:53 |
Barberi gives Powerpoint presentation | NICHOLSON: When it comes to things Vesuvius, Italy's politicians listen to this man. Professor Franco Barberi from Rome University Three is the consultant to the Campania regional government. He assures them that there will be plenty of time to escape if there is a major eruption. | 11:05 |
| BARBERI: So a minimum two weeks of signs will be given by the volcano. | 11:29 |
Barberi. Super: | So there is no possibility that Vesuvius will erupt without giving precursory signs. | 11:34 |
Barberi gives Powerpoint presentation | NICHOLSON: Franco Barberi works closely with the civil protection agency he once headed. They have repeatedly told the local population that there will be at least seven days to evacuate the Red Zone if they believe an eruption is imminent. | 11:44 |
Town below volcano | Now they're worried they might have got it wrong. They want to cut the time to evacuate to three days but those affected don't know about it yet. BARBERI: Before the official | 12:00 |
Barberi | adoption of the plan there will be very many meetings with Vesuvius population to explain them. | 12:13 |
Seismic graphs | Music | 12:22 |
Observatory | NICHOLSON: At the Naples observatory, scientists listen to the heartbeat of Vesuvius day and night. | 12:29 |
| They're also closely watching another, more obviously active volcano -- Stromboli --Italy's largest. | 12:38 |
File tape of Stromboli | This explosion in the crater of Stromboli was captured by an infra-red camera on the 15th of March. It erupted with only a couple of minutes warning, in spite of the state of the art monitoring. | 12:49 |
| For 2000 years there has been non-stop fireworks in the world's most active volcano. Some 250 kilometres across the sea from Naples in the Aeolian islands. This year it's been particularly active -- a massive lava flow in February and the huge explosion in March. | 13:13 |
Aerials. Village and crater | The Mediterranean hideaway is 10-hours by boat from Naples. | 13:44 |
| It rises sharply from the sea, but the visible part is far smaller than the rest of the volcano which lies beneath the waves. | 13:52 |
| Music | 14:01 |
Gaetano and Roberto working on fishing boat | NICHOLSON: Gaetano (guy-tano) Cusolitto (leeto) and his brother Roberto have grown up on Stromboli and are used to its antics, but the night of the 15th of march was different. | 14:16 |
Gaetano | GAETANO: It was like a loud boom, not an explosion - like a gust of fire then smoke and the sky and the mountain was all flames in the night - all red, and with lightning. I'd never seen anything like it. | 14:29 |
| In fact, at the top there were little fires all over the place - perhaps about twenty small fires - and then everything calmed down. We were a bit worried, it was a truly magical evening, because there were people right up to the observatory. But even so it was a truly magical evening. Stromboli brings out these emotions. It was magic. | 14:48 |
Around fishing boat | NICHOLSON: The Cusolitto brothers belong to one of Stromboli's big fishing families. They weren't born when the island was devastated by a major eruption in 1930, | 15:21 |
Stefano Cincotta | but their uncle, Stefano Cincotta, vividly remembers it. The eruption destroyed the island's agriculture and sent people fleeing. | 15:35 |
Stefano | STEFANO: I saw Stromboli bang, like a loud roar - All flames and lots of rocks that were falling. | 15:50 |
Stromboli | It became dark. There was no sun any longer. Everything was fire, a ball of fire. The island was burning. | 15:59 |
Stromboli | NICHOLSON: Stromboli's high jinks keep the people on their toes. | 16:15 |
Tourists at summit | By contrast, it's the very silence of Vesuvius that lulls the people who live beneath it into a false sense of security. | 16:25 |
| At one of Italy's highest shops, on the summit, tourists and their guides walk unafraid. PARLATO: Vesuvius is a dangerous volcano, | 16:39 |
Parlato. Super: Stefano Parlato | but I'm not afraid of the volcano, because I trust in the scientists that they give us a time to escape. | 16:51 |
Naples shots | Music | 17:02 |
| NICHOLSON: And below, in downtown Naples, most don't worry about it at all. | 17:07 |
Vox Pops on street | GIRL 1: Absolutely not. We know that it's an extinct volcano. | 17:14 |
| Music | 17:18 |
| YOUNG WOMAN: Being close, you hear of the danger - however, you never feel it's dangerous. YOUNG MAN: Because our city is far enough away from Vesuvius. | 17:22 |
| Music | 17:36 |
| GIRL: It's very beautiful. GIRL 2: It would be a good experience to go and see it even though I am a bit afraid it could explode. | 17:40 |
| Music | 17:54 |
| GIRL 2: In fact, they say ‘see Naples and then die.' | 17:57 |
| Music | 18:02 |
Naples architecture | NICHOLSON: The saying' see Naples and die' was coined by an 18th century admirer, seduced by the city's beauty. Today its magnificence is often overwhelmed by the chaos that comes with being one of Europe's most densely populated cities. | 18:11 |
Vesuvius | And all the while, Vesuvius reigns over the city that is held in its thrall. | 18:37 |
| Music | 18:42 |
| Reporter: Anne Maria Nicholson Camera: Louie Eroglu ACS Editor: Bryan Milliss Research : Anthea Bulloch | 18:50 |