Transcript:

With the final count for both the Democrat and Republican candidates now almost complete in 24 states, Americans are faced with a choice between the first woman president in history, their first African American, a former prisoner of war, a Mormon, or a Southern Baptist preacher. Democracy in action or democracy gone mad? As Dateline goes to air, the hype of Super Duper Tuesday appears to have done little for the Democrats. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are still locked in a political death struggle. But the old war-horse, John McCain, written off earlier in the campaign, looks likely to get the Republican nomination. Our man Mark Davis has been tagging the political enigma that is 71-year-old McCain.

REPORTER: Mark Davis

It's Martin Luther King Day in Columbia, South Carolina. It's the third week in January, and it's right in the middle of a race for a presidential nomination. For the Democratic Party, there are only three candidates left standing, and they have all come courting today. Hillary Clinton, with high hopes of finally returning to her preferred home in Washington. John Edwards, making his second run at the presidency, but sinking fast, squeezed into oblivion by the struggle between Clinton and the undisputed star of today's show, Barack Obama.
The struggle between Clinton and Obama has enthralled America. With an unpopular government, a collapsing economy and a war being lost, it has seemed almost inevitable that one of them will become president. No Republican has captured the nation like these two. But over the next fortnight, the Democrat dream will start to look a little less certain.

BARACK OBAMA, DEMOCRATE: God bless you all.

Just two hours drive upstate, Republicans gather aboard the old battleship USS 'Yorktown'.

JOHN McCAIN, REPUBLICAN: How about "Mac is back"?

To date, there are still six candidates vying for the Republican nomination. None of them outstanding. None of them whipping up any media excitement or national support.

ANNOUNCER: Ladies and gentlemen, the next president of the United States, John McCain!

The music heralding the 71-year-old senator from Arizona, John McCain, is certainly apt. It's the anthem of washed-up old fighters around the world. Just a few weeks ago his campaign for the party's nomination was regarded as a total wipe-out. He had no money, no staff, and single-digit approval ratings. A surprise win in New Hampshire has changed all of that, and he's now seen as possible contender. His success is a mystery to many commentators. His stump speech is standard Republican fare, low taxes, low taxes, and an end to government wastefulness.

JOHN McCAIN: And we have gone on a spending spree which has mortgaged your children's futures, and it's got to stop.

Like his competitors, he vows to defend America from Islamic extremists. But McCain, a well-known war hero, hits hard on one message that the others don't, the war in Iraq is a success, America is winning, and that he will continue the fight to victory.

JOHN McCAIN: My friends, we will never surrender. They will. They will surrender.

It was a message that, against expectations, seemed to work in New Hampshire and is now being refined and road tested again here in South Carolina.

JOHN McCAIN: You know, I want to tell you, and look you in the eye, I don't care what it takes, I will follow him to the gates of hell, I will get Osama bin Laden. As President of the United States I will get him and I know how to do it.

MAN: Go, John! He's gonna win tomorrow!

As the results of the South Carolina vote come in, McCain supporters gather at the local military academy, a fitting place to underscore the central message of his campaign.

MAN: Other issues come and go, everything else will work itself out. Defending the nation is the most important thing in my mind.

South Carolina is a key state for Republicans. Tonight is the test of whether McCain's message clearly distinguishes him from the pack.

WOMAN: Too many candidates, too many different issues, too many different views. Better if there were fewer candidates that were more focused.

As the night stretches on, the field begins to narrow. Fred Thompson, a month ago seen as a strong contender, slides off the radar and ends his campaign.

CROWD: Mac is back! Mac is back!

Mike Huckabee, who was expected to reap a victory in his religious heartland, begins to trail against McCain.

BOBBY HARRELL, SPEAKER SOUTH CAROLINA STATE LEGISLATURE: In a little bit they're gonna call this election, and I'm expecting a little celebration going on when that happens.

Bobby Harrell, the Speaker of state legislature here, spells out the McCain strategy of distinguishing himself from a crowded field.

BOBBY HARRELL: John McCain has the credentials for the international issues that need to be dealt with relating to terrorism that the other candidates don't have. I see his ability to be the commander-in-chief as the tie breaker of this when you start looking at who ought to be in what position. Hopefully it will work out like we think it is going to work out, and then it's on to Florida, and then it’s on to Super Tuesday, and then it’s on to November, and we're gonna keep the White House.

CROWD: Mac is back!

Within 20 minutes, the first part of Bobby Harrell's prediction comes true, there is now little doubt that the McCain formula is striking a chord. Now it's on to Florida to face off Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, broadly regarded as the big guns in the Republican campaign. Mitt Romney is the frontrunner in this campaign. A multimillionaire from Massachusetts with conservative views, good teeth and deep pockets, deep enough to sink $35 million of his own money into his bid. Florida is a critical campaign, the last state election before the bulk of other states vote all together on Super Tuesday, and Romney is certainly looking good. For ex-New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, events here aren't quite following the script that he'd hoped for. With Florida full of retired New Yorkers, this primary was meant to be his launch pad.

MAN: More of a Democrat than Hillary and Obama put together!

Like McCain, Giuliani has been pushing hard on his anti-terror and security credentials, but it seems his message isn't cutting through.

MAN: He wants to take away your right to defend yourself. He is a Democrat in drag.

ANNOUNCER: Senator John McCain!

Like Giuliani, McCain is also portrayed by some as a Democrat in drag.

MAN: Do you mind being called a moderate Republican?

JOHN McCAIN: I kinda resent labels, but the fact is I am a conservative.

To many, McCain is viewed as too green on environmental issues, too soft on illegal immigration, too critical of Bush's tax cuts, concerns he believes can be brushed away with his trump conservative card.

JOHN McCAIN: But let me just say also, my friends, that I believe conservatives are most concerned about the threat of radical Islamic extremists.

All the Republican candidates have talked tough on terror and broadly support the war. But only McCain is selling Iraq as a good news story.

JOHN McCAIN: We are succeeding thanks to the best-trained, best-equipped military we have ever had.

A message, it would seem, that audiences have been eager to finally hear.

JOHN McCAIN: Incredibly, Senator Clinton decided that she wants to surrender. She wants to raise the white flag! She wants to set a date of immediate withdrawal from Iraq after we've been winning. After the service and sacrifice of so many brave young Americans. And we are succeeding, and she is committed to setting a date for withdrawal, a date for surrender. My friends, I will not let that happen.

McCain is a likeable but enigmatic figure. While America is still trying to work out what type of president he might be, it may be a little too early to ask what that scenario would mean for allies like Australia.

REPORTER: What's your foreign policy mean?

But his answer is classic McCain, a little bonhomie, a little environment, and a little more war.

JOHN McCAIN: I know that the Australian people are very avid environmentalists and I notice that the new government has renewed its commitment to address the issue of climate change and I look forward to working with the Australian government and people on that. But I just want to say one other thing, we urge our Australian friends to help us out in areas of the world that are in everyone's national interest.

McCain's ability to appeal across political divides is emerging as his strength. There may be purer Republicans in the field, but their chances of winning a national election this year would be remote. At a rally for Barack Obama, I ask a simple question of the people waiting outside. 8 out of 10 have the same reply.

REPORTER: If you had to vote Republican, who would you vote for?

WOMAN 1: McCain.

WOMAN 2: John McCain.

WOMAN 3: John McCain.

WOMAN 4: John McCain, I don't know why.

WOMAN 5: I would vote for McCain.

Among liberal or undecided voters, McCain leaves Mitt Romney in the dust. And with his promise of victory in Iraq, he's drawing in the Republican heartland as well. As the Florida vote looms, with Super Tuesday soon to follow, McCain starts to run neck to neck with Mitt Romney in the polls. Polling is one way to take the pulse of a city, but sometimes talkback radio is just as good. I'm heading over to see what Joyce Kaufman's listeners are making of the last-minute pitches of John McCain and Mitt Romney. Popular radio host Joyce Kaufman is taking her show on the road today setting up at the University of Florida where all the candidates are about to debate.

CALLER: Voters don't know that John McCain is the amnesty king.

There is little doubt that McCain's sudden rise has taken her audience by surprise.

JOYCE KAUFMAN, RADIO HOST: Let's go to Robert in Stuart on John McCain. You're on the air, Robert.

McCain's support last year for an amnesty bill allowing illegal immigrants to stay in the US became so controversial, it almost finished his career.

REPORTER: What do people have against McCain? It seems a mystery to me. He seems pretty old-school Republican to me. That's interesting.

JOYCE KAUFMAN: Old-school Republican, except that he likes the idea of open borders, he likes the idea of as many Hispanics voting as possible. He's the senator from Arizona, which is a border state, and people just don't understand that he's taken a lot of money over the years from Hispanics, and that has coloured the way he views this. On my radio program in south Florida we refer to him as 'Satan'. We just don't like John McCain.

In town halls across Florida, McCain keeps pounding his Iraq message and the crowds keep getting bigger. Iraq is still item number one, but his liberal stance on illegal migration is still haunting him.

JOHN McCAIN: Now, some may have to go back straight away. Look, we are a Judeo-Christian values nation. Some may have to go back immediately some may have to go back to the country that they came from and go through a period of examination.

MAN: I'm telling you, I just got back from Alabama, and in a town where they're still living like they did 50 years ago, there's Mexicans walking up and down the road. Now we gotta get those 20 million out.

This type of debate is a disturbing development for Charlie Black, McCain's chief strategist.

MAN: These people here suffer from the crime of illegals down the street.

Black played a major role in the winning campaigns for Ronald Reagan and both of the Bushes and is smelling victory again, particularly when McCain gets back on message.

JOHN McCAIN: I can tell you right now that the battleground in the struggle against Islamic extremism is clearly Iraq.

CHARLIE BLACK, CHIEF STRATEGIST: The war in Iraq is John McCain's trademark issue. Now we're doing the surge and it's working and that's added greatly to his political prestige.

REPORTER: He seems to be getting a pretty enthusiastic response to that message, but that's mostly Republican crowds though.

CHARLIE BLACK: Well, it's mostly Republicans crowds but that is who will be voting in the primaries on Tuesday, it will be all Republicans, that plus his message about fighting the overall war on radical Islamic terrorism.

JOHN McCAIN: If I have to follow him to the gates of hell I will get Osama Bin Laden, I'll get him and you can count on it.

REPORTER: How does that message go down in broader America where the war is on the face of it, looking unpopular?

CHARLIE BLACK: The war is unpopular and people are frustrated and impatient about it. But all the Democratic candidates are for immediate withdrawal from Iraq. When you give the American people the choice, should we immediately withdraw and give victory to al-Qaeda or should we keep with the surge strategy which is working and go on to victory, they pick victory.

It is the night of the Republican debate at Florida University, and the tone is being set outside.

CROWD: Out of Iraq! Fight back! Impeach Bush, impeach Cheney, impeach Rice, impeach 'em all!

REPORTER: I want each of you to take 30 seconds. Will you go to the country, Senator McCain, and say that the war was a good idea, worth the price in blood and treasure, and we will stay?

JOHN McCAIN: It was worth getting rid of Saddam Hussein. I'm proud to be the only one on this stage that said we had to abandon the Rumsfeld strategy and we had to adopt the strategy that is succeeding and that has happened.

Before McCain entered the scene, the Iraq war was a poison chalice for all aspiring Republican candidates.

JOHN McCAIN: I'm the only one that has said that. It is succeeding.

No-one condemned it, but it was best left bundled up with George Bush, and as he departs, consigned to his legacy. McCain has now pushed them all to own it, commit to it, and pledge its continuation. Suddenly it feels like 2003 again.

WOMAN: I like McCain because I am scared to death of the terrorists. Even right here I thought about this a little while ago, all these people, what if someone came in here?

JOHN McCAIN: Thank you. Thank you very much. When things were at their worst, a lot of people said McCain's political career was over. But I want to tell you this strategy is succeeding in Iraq. It is succeeding thanks to this general.

In the final days, McCain stays on message, but resentment to that message is now emerging, perhaps a foretaste of the year to come.

MAN: What about the Americans dead? 750,000 dead over there!

JOHN McCAIN: I think these experts right here will tell you al-Qaeda is trying to establish cells in America. I look you in the eye, my friends, and I'll tell you that if I have to follow him to the gates of hell, I will get Osama bin Laden.

Whether he finally wins the party nomination or not, McCain will have placed the war at the centre of this year's presidential contest, setting the stage perhaps for a nation to be at war with itself.

MARK DAVIS INTERVIEW:

Mark Davis filming and reporting there. And earlier this evening, George Negus spoke with Mark in New York for his take on today's Super Tuesday developments.

GEORGE NEGUS: Mark, we've just seen your piece, any surprises for you in how things went for John McCain camp today because you seem to be suggesting that there were serious mixed feelings about the man within the Republican Party itself.

MARK DAVIS: Oh, very serious misgivings about McCain, but that might quieten down now once the parties settle in to who the nominees will be, I think ultimately the Republicans won't have much choice if McCain does win the nomination, but to get behind him because it's either McCain, who they might despise, or Hillary Clinton or Obama, who they despise much, much more.

GEORGE NEGUS: Romney and Huckabee are making all the right sort of noises that you'd expect at this point about hanging on in there, but we can write them off, can't we?

MARK DAVIS: No, you can't write them off. I mean, it will be they will be waiting for the first time to blink. It depends who takes second place at the moment. If the conservatives really rally around one of those candidates and it will just be whoever's standing, Huckabee's saying he's going to the end. Mitt Romney, it's costing him a fortune, and there's been talk in his camp that he has been having conversations with his family whether they can afford to go on, particularly if it's going to be for second place. So it's not a foregone conclusion, conservatives will still be hammering away at McCain, but I think he is in a pretty commanding lead now.

GEORGE NEGUS: Is it fair to describe him or is it being a bit unfair to describe him as the lesser of evils where the Republicans are concerned? As you say, not really much choice.

MARK DAVIS: Look, it's pretty hard, look some of these comments are so extreme, they're almost unbelievable. He hardly seems like a lefty liberal to me, or to many observers, but they do tend to fixate on certain issues. Now, illegal immigration is the hot issue in America at the moment, he is seen as a softy on that, and this is the hot-button issue that every political rally from the Republican side has people stamping their feet when politicians hit that button. So, it's a big negative for him. But as you say, I think better McCain then Clinton or Obama.

GEORGE NEGUS: Indeed, nice to talk to you, mate.

MARK DAVIS: It’s always fun, see you George.