REPORTER: Spohie  McNeil

Summer in the Egyptian city of Alexandria. Once, this harbour city was the centre of trade and learning throughout the Mediterranean Sea. Its famous library had no equal and its then lighthouse was one of the Seven Wonders of the ancient world. Founded in 331 BC by Alexander the Great, Alexandria served as the capital of Egypt for over 1,000 years. Both the Greeks and the Romans conquered this prized city but Alexandria is now thought to be at risk from far more powerful forces. This water lapping at Alexandria's shores could threaten its very existence.
Professor Salah Soliman of Alexandria University is organising a special documentary screening. While global warming is a hot issue in the West, it hasn't been high on the policy agenda in the Middle East. But Professor Soliman is on a mission to bring Al Gore's message to the attention of his fellow Egyptians.

PROFESSOR SALAH SOLIMAN, (Translation): Here in Egypt, we are very interested in this topic, not because we want to be interested but because all the studies that have been endorsed state that Egypt is among the countries most prone to the negative effects of climate change.

Much of the West's focus is preoccupied with the effect of climate change on their cities and their way of life. But it's the developing countries that are tipped to be the worst-affected by rising sea levels.

PROFESSOR SALAH SOLIMAN: Egypt is being now considered as one of the most three countries going to be attacked or affected by climate change.

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change pinpointed the top three regions in the world that will be worst-affected if global sea levels rise. They are the delta areas of the Mekong, in Vietnam, the Ganges Delta, in Bangladesh, and the Nile Delta of Egypt. It has some Egyptians seriously concerned.

WOMAN, (Translation): It will affect us and it will affect the rest of the world, we should all work together and fear for each other. It will have a tremendous effect on us, it will affect the future, our development, everything.

Studies have estimated that if the global ice caps do melt, sea levels could rise between 50 centimetres to one metre within the next 50 to 100 years. This is the predicted effect of just a 50-centimetre sea level rise on the Egyptian coast. It would displace more than 10% of Egypt's population.

DR MOHAMMAD AL-RAEY, PROFESSOR OF ENVIRONMENTAL PHYSICS: I would estimate something between 5 million or 6 million people.

REPORTER: Would have to move?

DR MOHAMMAD AL-RAEY: Yes, they would have to move.

Dr Mohammad al-Raey is a professor of environmental physics at the University of Alexandria and an adviser to the Egyptian Government on climate change. His studies have shown that, if seas levels do rise, much of the low-lying Nile Delta region would be inundated.

DR MOHAMMAD AL-RAEY: This whole area is a very low elevation, between zero elevation and perhaps one or two metres. In particular there are several areas near Alexandria, east of Alexandria, which is below the sea level.

East of Alexandria are the fertile agricultural regions of the Nile Delta. This rich alluvial soil is where the majority of Egypt's food is grown. It's crucial for feeding the country's 80 million people. But as salty sea water leeches into these low-lying agricultural areas, Egypt could face serious food shortages.

MOHAMMAD (Translation): As you can see with the land here, there’s a white surface that is caused by the flow of salty seawater.

Mohammad comes from a family of farmers in the Nile Delta. He says that over the last few years higher sea levels have already begun to make parts of the land infertile.

MOHAMMAD (Translation): It has become barren, it used to be agricultural land but seawater floods it every year because it is a lowland and increases its salinity.

These days, in order to grow vegetables, local farmers have to remove the top layer of salty soil and replace it with soil from another area.

MOHAMMAD (Translation): To do this I have to hire tractors and machinery to remove sand, raise the land, cultivate it and reclaim it bit by bit.

Egypt's water problems are not confined to the coast. For thousands of years, the fresh water of the River Nile has sustained life in Egypt and kept the sands of the Sahara at bay.

MAN (Translation): We use it for drinking, watering our crops, as drinking water for the cattle and people. It is the most important thing in Egypt, it’s our life.

But global warming could drastically impact the rainfall that supplies water to the Nile. Water levels in the river could drop up to 70% in the next 50 years.

DR MOHAMMAD AL-RAEY: The country is totally dependent, 95%, even more than 95%, on the water from the River Nile. So it would have a very serious impact on the population and a very serious impact on the development of the whole region.


Faced with such catastrophic scenarios, you'd think Egypt would be doing everything it could to lower its greenhouse gas emissions. However, even if all these Egyptians started riding bikes tomorrow, it wouldn't make much difference. The hundreds and thousands of cars that pass through Cairo's streets every day result in the air here being filled with smog and pollution. But when you look at the figures, Egypt's overall contribution to worldwide greenhouse gas emissions is tiny. As a country, Egypt contributes only 0.5% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, compared to the United States, which contributes around 22%, about 9 times as much per capitor than Egypt.

DR  EL – SAYED SABRY MANSOUR, CHIEF ADVISOR TO EGYPTIAN ENVIRONMENT MINISTER: Egypt from the beginning realised the threatening coming from the climate change.

Dr el-Sayed Sabry Mansour is the chief adviser to the Egyptian Environment Minister. He doesn't think it's fair that Egypt is paying the price for the excesses of others.

DR  EL – SAYED SABRY MANSOUR: Those who are historically responsible on these emissions and these global warming, they have to cooperate and they have to assist the developing countries who has no share or a very small share of emissions and at the same time are the most vulnerable countries when it comes to climate change impacts.

In Alexandria, for some, the sea is still seen as a source of entertainment rather than concern but slowly this great civilisation of the past is beginning to look to the future, albeit a very uncertain one.

Reporter/Camera
SOPHIE MCNEILL

Editors
SUE BELL
SLAVICA GAJIC

Producer
ASHLEY SMITH

Subtitling
DALIA MATAR

Original Music composed by
VICKI HANSEN