01.49 For more than 30 years President Suharto has delivered to his country, economic growth.. now , as he begins his seventh term in office, Indonesia hovers on the brink of economic collapse...
SARWONO
02.05 There's no need to elaborate on what starving people will do.
looting pics
ALITAS
02.14 We are aware that if something goes very wrong in Indonesia, it will not only be confined to Indonesia.
02.24 Over the years, Suharto has crushed all opposition ruthlessly, leaving the nation nowhere else to turn....and he's now more determined than ever to keep his grip on power..
JUWONO SUDARSONO
02.37 The drive for power is absolute. If you lose power, you lose absolutely.
02.42 What will be the cost of Suharto's fight for political survival? Can Indonesia survive Suharto's end game...
TITLE
bloke blows whistle, band starts up, Suharto drives up etc...
03.12 President Suharto is arriving at the start of the People's Consultative Assembly two weeks ago, comfortable in the knowledge that the 1000 delegates will elect him unanimously for another five year term.. the wisdom of this seeming vote of confidence in their aging President was questioned even by members of his own cabinet
SARWONO
03.34 Q. Do you think that the rest of the world finds it hard to understand why a country would re-elect somebody... who has led them into a crisis... to be the person to lead them out of that crisis?
A. Well.... I've been asking that question myself. I find it very strange. So I hope again... that somebody knows something that I don't.
delegates arriving
04.01 Any one of the delegates has the right to vote for another candidate, but the president knows he has it in the bag...half of the delegates were handpicked by the President himself, four of them are his own children.... Tommy is the youngest and brashest of Suharto's children, Tutut is the most politically ambitious, her father has just made her a member of his Cabinet.. Bambamg is one of the ten richest men in the country... and Titiek ?, she's married to one of the most powerful men in the Indonesian military her husband, General Prabowo, is also a hand picked delegate from the armed forces, often referred to as ABRI..
PRABOWO
04.44 How determined is President Suharto, do you think, to remain in office for another 5 years?
A. [CHUCKLES]..... I cannot answer for him, I cannot answer for President Suharto. But... so as a... how I think we know him for many years... I don't think he will er... he will not fulfil his mission CUT
Q. Do you think the economic crisis has in some ways made him even more determined.... to stay in office?
A. I think logically yes, I mean... no leader would like to step down without er.... without giving a good performance, I think.
delegates hovering outside assembly...sea of black hats
05.30 The delegates who not not appointed by the President, were elected in last years general election, but the list of candidates is vetted by the President himself... as a result the members of the two so called Opposition Parties are voting the same way as Suharto's ruling Party,... a number it has to be said have private misgivings, like many Indonesians they've lost confidence of President Suharto, and would like to see him go..
JUWONO SUDARSONO
05.59 One third of Indonesians were born after 1970, so it's understandable the people are tired of Suharto.. tired of seeing him.. want to see him go, including foreign journalists.
Juwono sequence being flocked by journo's outsdie assembly
06.12 Juwono Sudarsono is a first time delegate to the National Assembly...two days ago he was made a member of Suharto's new cabinet. He expresses what is a widely held view within the elite,..that precisely becuase Suharto has absolute power, stability and reform of the sytem, depends on keeping him there...
JUWONO
06. 34 I think er.. most peoples have always said that he is part of the problem.. he's become THE problem. I still maintain that he's the key to the resolution of a long term reform that is needed, because he is central to the system. The political system is too much focused on him, it's true, but er.. I believe that even with that over-concentration of political and economic power in one person, that particular focus has to be maintained for the next five years at least.
Mothers demo
07.17 Out on the streets many Indonsians are not prepared to wait that long...the economic crisis has given them both the courage and the incentive to voice their dissent....
In the lead up to the NationaL Assembly all demostrations have been banned..but almost every day in Jakarta a small group of protestors are determined to have their say...some for the first time...this tiny group of middle class women are protesting the skyrocketting price of baby milk...now way beyond the reach of the poor...
VOX POP JULIA
08.01 We're a group of convert... con... con... concerned mothers who are... er... in fear that the situation in Indonesia has become intolerable, and we don't have a say in any of this, but we have to...... bear the burden and we are the ones who have to put food on the table and it's increasingly difficult to do that. So now we thought of making this action to draw attention to the situation.
08.20 The roses for the military are an optimistic reference to the peoples power movement in the Phillipines, where the army joined the protesters to topple President Marcos, ...but Indonesia is a long way from that...the officer in charge is initially uncertain.... he calls to base, ..what should they do about the demonstration, with so many foreign journalists filming their every move?
they decide to break it up....
PRABOWO
09.14 I.... it's your opinion that it's broken up, but I think you know there are regulations, there are laws.... I think even in Westernn Europe to have a demonstration, you need permission 2 day's notice to the police and there's a route that's agreed upon. I mean you cannot just make a demonstration right in the middle of the centre of a traffic, er.... junction - that's what happened, I think, in the occasion you mentioned.
Q: If... if that kind of protest... is a problem, what kind of protest is OK?
A. You can have a lot of er... channels, you have petitions, you can go to the local assembly, I mean there are, you know, there are a lot of ways I think.
10.02 Back inside the assembly hall President Suharto is giving what's called his accountability address...a report card on his term as President for the past five years.
10.14 NAT SOT ..May God bless me with the awareness to report that what is unsatisfactory, is indeed unsatisfactory...
10.24 For the first four years,there was year after year of economic growth..but then.in his words, the monetray turmoil hit us so unexpectedly....
SARWONO
10.36 Well it's a.. like a.. slipping on a banana peel, you know, when you don't see it. Suddenly you.. you find yourself flat on your face in a.. it's not a.. a very pleasant experience .
sequence of President sitting down, looking like an old man...
10.55 The President's stature has been diminished by the crisis. His claim to poltical legitimacy was based on his economic achievements. Now he apears exposed, an old man floundering in the face of a currency crisis he can't control...trading at around 9000 to the US dollar, the rupiah has lost a staggering 70% of its value since last July.....
SOFJAN
11.22 Q: What will Indonesia look like in 12 months time, if the rupiah stays at around 9,000 to the dollar?
A: I'd say we are mostly bankrupts. Becuase already you see it now with this 9,000 rupiah per dollars, 90% of the big compnaies is already mostly bankrupt.
11.39 Sofjan Wanandi is a leading spokesperson for the Chinese business community...he's a wealthy man, but not one of President Suharto's inner circle...
Q: And what will be the impact on the Indonesian people, not just business?
Sofjan I think this is the most important things that we are facing because, if they don't have income.. because they are.. most them is unemployed already.. because I think most of the company is doing a lot of.. of.. of er.. laying these people out..
Q. ... laying people off, yeah ...
A. ... that is the.. the.. what we are.. we are doing, and it.. millions has been laid out already because of the crisis, you know
Jakarta
12.30 The crisis that has swept through the Asian economies, has hit Indonesia the hardest..
this is Jakarta, the capital....its high rise developments have ground to a halt, as construction companies go to the wall. Private corporate debt stands at more than $70 billion dollars. The crisis has exposed the weakness and corruption of the banking system, which lacked transparency, lacked controls, and lent money as if the good times would never end...
now anxious bank employees are gathered behind closed doors to learn if their bank will be amongst the few to survive. Down on the streets, unemployed workers turn their hands to other ways to scrape together a meagre living...the average annual income before the crash, was only $1000 US dollars, and that's more than halved ...
cooking oil sequence
14.04 The price of basic foods like cooking oil is rising... medical supplies are running short , and are now priced out of the reach of many families....Under pressure from the worsening crisis President Suharto secured a loan the International Monetary Fund, late last year...on the promise of undertaking economic reforms.. but confidence in the currency has not returned...
SOFJAN
14.18 Q. And what is your worst fear for the country if that confidence does not come back?
A. Well... I cannot imagines, you know, because people of 200 million, if anything happen, it's... it's so bad, I.... I... I don't like to think it about the... the... the worst scenario that could happens you know.
14.36 In a public relations exercise to show their confidence in the currency, these members of Indonesia's business elite, are attending an "I Love the Rupiah" campaign function. The campaign has been iniated by President's Suharto's children, before the crash his family's wealth was conservatively estimated at around $6 billion US dollars. The celebrity guest today is the President's second daughter, Titiek Prabowa. As part of the IMF reform package the President was forced to cancel some of the most controversial tax privileges and big spending projects, associated with his children.Titiek's multi billion proposal to build the world's longest bridge was on the IMF's hit list.. Here Titik is changing $10, 000 US dollars back into rupiah, that's what loving the rupiah involves...
Titiek vox pop
Q: Titiek, one question, do you think your family have been unfairly blamed for the crisis?
A: What do you think?
A: Do you think they have been?
A: I think so.
Q: Who do you blame?
A: Who do I blame? I think you can answer that, you know better than we do.
Q: Do you support all the measures in the IMF pacakage?
A: The government knows what to do.
Q: Have they affected your personal financial interests?
A: It affects all Indonesians all over Indonesia.
Q: Are you embarrassed by your family’s personal wealht in the current crisis?
A: What do you mean?
Q: By the amount of money your family has in crisis?
A: I don’t know where you pick up the amounts.
Q: Do you think it’s time for your father to retire form politics?
(Titiek walks away).
16.33 The IMF refrom package also took a swipe at the President's so-called cronies...a small group of businessmen who've enjoyed exclusive access to the lucrative monopolies and cartels that dominate the Indonesian economy..often in partnership with his children...
VOX POP
16.51 Who do you blame for the crisis? So many people outside because so many people oiutside can play with the money becxause money is commodity. If I have a lot of money I can play also. You see, like pound sterling, yen.
You blame the currency speculators?
Of course, for sure.
Not crony capitalism? Nepotism, corruption? One of very small. A lot of corruption, a lot of nepotism all over the world, not only in Indonesia, that is a part of problem but that is not the cause of this problem.
Bijan meeting Suharto
17.32 Bijan Aghevli is the Chief of the IMF mission in Jakarta, its his job to monitor the economic reforms
BIJAN
17.41 As always when you have an economy where there are lot of distortions in the system, strong vested interests develop because those groups benefit from those distortions.
Q. And very strong vested interests are resisting the changes?
A. Well I would be very surprised if they didn't,
CAMDESSUS
18.01 Back in January the IMF had reason to be pleased...Suharto had backpeddled on a previous IMF deal and the value of the rupiah had sunk even lower. A parade of world leaders had dropped in or phoned Suharto to urge him to take the bitter medecine to get the economy back on track..
The President was left with no real options... he signed up to a sweeping new 50 point IMF reform package ...new banking laws, lowered tarrifs, ending subsidies, allowing greater foreign ownership and breaking up monpolies and cartels - in return the IMF would provide a series of laons worth $38 billion US dollars...The head of the IMF Michel Camdessus witnessed Suharto signing away Indonesia's economic svoeriegnty, but he failed to appreciate that this was for the President a serious loss of face
JUWONO SUDARSONO
18.49 Unfortunately, Mr Kamdusu's (phon) crossed-arms stance in our terms, in the Indonesian terms er.. signalled the symbol of a stern school master admonishing his pupil, and I think it gave a wrong signal to the Indonesian political public, never mind the President who was er.. staunchly Javanese and nationalist. To my mind that was a very unfortunate symbol of arrogance on the part of Mr Kamdusu and unfortunately, it also provided the reason why the resistance against the IMF packet became strong among several groups in.. in Government.. and in.. and in the business sector.
BIJAN
19.45 There are, is some evidence that the groups involved in the ???? that why they may adhere to the letter of the decrease which was issued they are trying to find other private arrangements to get around this and maintain the ??? Now in Indonesia there are no anti-monopoly laws as such, however I think the general perception is that if the government is really serious, it can stop this in these areas and that's what needs to be done.
Night Street
20.23 The IMF had litle choice but to back president suharto...like it or not, there was never any serious dbout that he would be returned to the presidential palace...but ever since he personally signed the imf agreemnt, his committment to the reforms has been in doubt....the package would not deliver him the quick fix that poltically he craved to restore his credibility...and his family and friends were advising another course of action...the currency board...
Changing money scene...
20.50 If Indonesia introduced a currency Board tomorrow, these people would no longer need around 10,000 rupiah to buy just one US dollar..the Board would peg the rate at about five and half thousand, and guarantee to back it, no matter what. The upside is obvious..the value of the rupiah is instantly doubled, and President Suharto looks more like he's solving the crisis..
but its dangerous...once the Board has pegged the rate there's no backing off or the whole monetray system collapses...to hold the line Indonesia has to have enough foreign reserves to back every rupiah that's out there...they need a strong banking system and nerves of steel as interests rates soar.... few economists believe that any of these conditions presently exist..
BIJAN
21.42 These three conditions at this stage are not satisfied in Indonesia, so it would be very risky to put in place this currency board at this time in Indonesia, that's our view,
exterior of Hyatt
21.54 The IMF occupy rooms on 19th and 20th floor' of the Hyatt Hotel in the centre of Jakarta...
When the President revealed he was considering a currency Board the IMF was stunned and dismayed...they threatened to suspend their multi billion dollar rescue package...the currency board was put on hold, but two weeks ago the President announced he had another solution to the crisis, what he called "IMF plus"... is it the currency Board by another name?
BIJAN
22.27 What does the IMF understand by IMF plus,
A. I don't know if I can comment so explicitly about that because that is not, I can explain to you what IMF program is, that's very simple and straight forward.
Q. But the President wants IMF plus, do you know what he means?
A. I, as I indicated earlier there could be other measures he has in mind, could be still currency board at some stage, he is still considering and studying....
Q. You're not sure?
A. I don't know, no I am not sure what that...
Q. Does it bother that the President can stand up and say well IMF plus and IMF doesn't actually know what the plus is?
A. I think we are going to focus on what needs to be done in order to make the program successful and ah.... rather than get into the extraneous degrees.
23.25 What 's more worrying is that the government itself, doesn't seem to know...
ALATAS
23.25 what is IMF plus...
A. Well it is being worked out now. It is, for one thing.... it is not negating or diminishing the IMF, because as the term itself says, it is IMF plus something... and not IMF negative.... [CHUCKLES].... something. But of course, you are right, we need to... to fill in what is the plus. Well, what the plus is... in essence are.. the kind of measures or policies that will bring down the rupiah, accentuate er... viz-a-vis foreign currency and bring some stability to the currency as I said one of the most urgent dimensions of our problem. CUT
ALATAS
Q. Is the plus... a version to the currency board? (there is a reverse ),
A. Probably, we don't know yet. Er.. we are looking at it,
BIJAN
24.29 Q But the serious question that I want to ask about is it must be a concern to you that the indications are that the President doesn't have faith that the package alone will ????
At the present juncture we are Indonesia is facing a very serious crisis of confidence. A crisis of confidence which has been deepened over a number of developments over the last few months since October and everytime a program has been announced and it has not been put in place strongly that underlines confidence and the next step is that much more difficult to gain more confidence and this is a underlying problem here.
BIJAN
25.27 Q. But the question is are you concerned not with the markets confidence, but that President Suharto doesn't have confidence in the program because he says I ???
A. Those are the questions you will have to put to the President I'm afraid.
a week ago the next installment of the IMF loan was put on hold...
BIJAN
25.28 Q. Is there any question that the IMF would effectively pull the plug on the money? CUT A.Pull the plug doesn't exist in our vocabulary so that is not a term I would want to use. CUT Sometimes the authorities do not fulfil certain policy commitments and then they have to recommit themselves before we can proceed
26.18 Suharto's failure to resolve the economic crisis, is feeding the mounting disatsifaction with his poltical leadership
Rais emerges from the pit
26.31 Dr Amien Rais has only recently emerged as a serious player in the Indonesian political arena..
He's the Chairman of the 28 million strong, Muhammadiyah movement. Like many critics of President Suharto, he believes there's simply no hope for economic reform, while Suharto remains in office..
AMIEN RAIS
26.57 A No way, there is no way that we can be successful in reforming our economy without having desperately needed political reorm. I believe that ah... Suharto and his family cannot distinguish any longer between the interests of the family and the interests of the nation.
27.26 Muhammadiyah is a Muslim organisation, not a political party... this is ostensibly just a religious rally, but at the end of last year Amien Rais declared himself willing to stand as a Presidential candidate against Suharto
A RAIS
27.42 To be very honest in the beginning I didn't have any ambition to be president of this country. But I think I changed over time ah... because not too many people have moral courage to be presidents of this country....
the band comes out..the marching girls..
28.11 The backing of Muhamediya is what gives Amien Rais the moral courage to make that declaration..only two others have dared to put themselves forward....the first, Sri Bintang, is serving a four year jail term for calling the President a dictator at a seminar in Germany..the other is Megawati Sukarnoputri, who was ousted by the President as head of her party when it looked like she was getting too popular
AMIEN RAIS
28.39 Suharto is very successful in having management of fear, I mean the whole people have been engineered in such a way that everybody has fear and this way Suharto is again and again and again re-elected ah... for the Presidency.
29.09 When its time for Rais to speak, he does not directly say Suharto should resign,.. but he calls for, quote, "a clean leader who will deal with the corruption,. collusion and cronysin that is eating at the pillars of society". Its a popular message... But Amien Rais is also saying that Suharto should be given a little more time...he's not ready to take him on
A RAIS
29.45 I will give Suharto a fair chance you know. So, if after being a fair chance, Suharto does not perform, does not deliver, I think I will go down to the streets you know. I have er.... run out of my patience you know. I will tell the student leaders er... and the leaders who believe me to come on the street to organise, mobilise and mobilise peaceful... people's power - this is the only solution.
Q. You will bring the people onto the street.......
A. Not now, not now.....
Q. ... Not now, not now.....
PRABOWO
30.16 Q. When we spoke with Amien Rais, he said that he was prepared to.... allow President Suharto a period of months to resolve the economic crisis, but if at the end of a period of months, the situation was only worse, he would consider calling his people onto the street.
A. That's er.... I mean Rais' opinion.
Q. Is that something that ABRI fears?.NB .the reverse doesn't use "ABRI"
A. I think er.... Arbri .... is confident of the... faith of the Indonesian people in Arbri.... because we are a people's army and we... we are close to the people.
crowd goes mad
JUWONO Sudarsono
31. 43 Q. What's your assessment of the chances of Amien Rais becoming a future President of Indonesia?,
A. Almost negligible. I think he's a useful counter-symbol against everything that is seen to be wrong with the government and government policies. Er.. the same goes with Megawati Sukarnopudri (phon) some.. some year and a half ago. I think they're useful counter-symbols, but are not really powerful.
Q. And your view of their chances of becoming President are negligible?
A. Negligible.
Q. They have enormous popular appeal?
A. Popular appeal is not political power.
Q. Can't popular appeal translate into political power in this country?
A. It has to be translated. That's the problem. We are good in movements, but lousy in organisation.
wild applause
32.40 Megawati Sukarnoputri, the daughter of the country's first President is still the most popular politcial figure in Indonesia today...her appeal extends beyond this middle class audience into the urban and rural poor...but she's keeping a very low profile..despite declaring that she too was ready to be nominted as a Prediential candiate, this was one of the few public meetings that she's addressed in recent months...and it was held at her home...her supporters are disappointed that she didn't call them onto the streets, but like Amien Rais she has a keener appreciation of the politcial realities in Indonesia today...her natural caution tells her now is not the moment to act
NAT SOT...end of speech, punch into air
MEGAWATI
33.32 Q. A lot of young people we've spoken to... say they want... change... quickly... and that you're moving too... slowly for them....
A. Oh yes, of course, because they have fresh blood, er... very strong spirit. I understand what they are thinking, what they all... want,
- what is the meaning of now? Today, tomorrow or one year's more or one month's more - that... that's... but that's the moment. And.. I think the...
Q. [Interjects]...... For you is it a day or a month or a year or 5 years?
A. Oh of course it's not a mathematics.... it's not.. this is politics. [PAUSE] Yes, this is politics.
SARWONO
34.21 Q. There are opposition figures.. Megawati.. Amien Rais.. ???
A. ... ??? (laughs)... yeah..
Q. Not effective political ??? (inaudible)
A. Mmm. No.. not.. not in the short term, no.
Q. How long ???
A ... they.. they.. they provide a very s.. er.. er.. a very useful and.. and symbolic presence. A kind of a.. a taste of things to come, let's.. let's.. let's put it that way. But er.. they don't serve any practical purpose in the short term, no. I.. I'm not discounting their er.. longer term significance.
rice buying
35.04 It’s seven in the morning in the central market of Jakarta..A government rice truck has arrived with a load of subsidized rice... the El Nino drought has drastically reduced local rice production...the cost of importing the shortfall, is now four times what is was this time last year...even with subsidies, the price these women are paying for rice has doubled
troops up the car park...
35.34 at the back of the market unbeknownst to the shoppers, government troops are pouring into the multi story carpark... in case there's trouble..the most immediate threat to Suharto, comes not from an organised oppostion movement, but from the mounting anger and desperation of the mass of poor Indonesians unable to afford the inflated cost of basic food..the soldiers are here in case that anger erupts...
36.05 A nationwide food crisis is closing in....more and steeper price rises are inevitable soon.....Indonesia imports all its wheat, and a substantial amount of its soy bean and sugar consumption...The government simply cannot afford to keep up the subsidies, apart from the fact the IMF package calls for all bar the subsidy on rice to be swept away in the coming months.. outside Jakarta, food riots have already started....
SARWONO
36.39 Q. If the Government can't afford to keep the subsidies up, are you concerned that it will exacerbate the food riots that we've already seen in certain ...
A. ... it's a very serious possibility. Yes.
Looting...fires
37.02 In the weeks before President Suharto's re-election a wave of riots swept across the island of Java, with breakouts on other islands as well....
PRABOWO
37.12 Many of these things are... are... I think.... dramatised, over dramatised, I mean the western press... will come into Indonesia, you know, just looking for... er.... all... this dramatic er.... pictures of... violence etc. Er... we are concerned - yes, definitely but er.... I think on the whole, er... for the condition we're in, for the serious crisis, I think er... many other countries face worse situations.
burnt out shops
37.56 To date the principal target of the rioters has been the ethnic Chinese shopkeepers...they're easy scapegoats. The concern for the government is that as the crisis continues, the anger will turn on them...if violence erupts in the capital Jakarta, only the army will stand between Suharto and the mob...
JUWONO SUDARSONO
38.20 How much longer do you think President Suharto will remain the President of this country?
A. At the moment he is still very powerful. The most powerful Iinstrument of government is the army, and the army is in his hands...
the handover of power ceremony...
38.58 The armed forces are gathering In Jakarta for a ceremonial handover of power. Three weeks before his re-election President Suharto announced a re-shuffle of the top jobs in the military..these positions are critical, because its the army's loyalty that keeps Suharto in power...
39.21 The President gave the top job, Chief of the Armed Forces, to General Wiranto, he's also the new Minister for Defence. General Wiranto is a former adjuctant to the President so he's seen as a Suharto loyalist...but he's also tipped as a possible future President, if the army were to tap Suharto on the shoulder, and tell him its time to go
AMIEN RAIS
39. 45 I think the armed forces loyalty to the government is always qualified you know if the government does not carry out it's duty I think there is no any reason for the armed forces to support the government, and I think they have to say goodbye to the Suharto's government if the Suharto's government is ??? in this examination.
Prabowo being glad handed by all and sundry
40.08 The President also promoted his own son-in law, General Prabowo Subianto. General Prabowo is now the commander of the largest and most powerful single unit in the armed forces...37,000 soldiers are under his command...every one is keen to shake the General's hand, and pass on their congratulations......but he's not without his enemies...
General Prabowo's fast track up through the army ranks is widely resented, he's the youngest three star general in the armed forces...
Prabowo paints himself as open to change...
VOX POP...with South China Post..
Q: Is this a new generation for the military?
A: You can say that it ís a new generation. But on average we’ve served 28 years. We’re not that young.
PRABOWO
41.25 Q. Is there any section within the armed forces who feel a growing sympathy for... a more democratic system in Indonesia?
A. I think er... the younger generation in the... in the official core I think er.... are more aware of.... er... the trends and the aspirations that are going around in... society, so.... I think we... we will.... try to... er... accommodate and try to... be loyal to the aspirations of our people. And I think er.... there is room for more improvement in... a lot of our er... institution building.
Riot police
42. 12 But the claim to sympathy for democratic aspirations does not extend to allowing street demonstrations.......students in East Java were tear gassed last week, when they attempted to take their protest outside their campus...
PRABOWO
42.29 Q You don't feel that in any Indonesian society now you can have street demonstrations?
A. We.. we.. I.. I don't think that it's conducive to er.. to useful discourse, you know, because it can deteriorate always to violence.
choppers taking off in front of buildings
42.55 As the crisis escalates, the miltary will be confronted with critical decisions. How far are they prepared to go to crush dissent? How will they control hungry angry people...
At what point would they abandon the President and pressure him to stand down ?
PRABOWO
43.14 Q. If the situation does get worse, seriously worse in this country, is there a point at which it'll be better to change leadership?
A. Er... I think we have a.... mechanism, we have a... constitutional system that we have er... carried out in history, I think we will.... maintain that system and that mechanism.
Q. Do you think that a people's power movement is possible in Indonesia in the coming months?
A. I..... what I think is that er.... well you... you've been in Indonesia, you see... I think er..... majority of the people, I think, still believes in the Government and in the armed forces, I think. So, I don't see a mass uprising against the Government, mass uprising against the armed forces.
PRABOWO
44.12 Q. A lot of young people are determined to go out on the streets and demand change, They want to know bottom line questions like.. will you shoot them?
A. Er.. I mean it's not a black and white situation that you.. that you paint. We carry out dialogue.. we meet them face to face.. we discuss with them.. we try to.. we try to talk things out.
Q. But if they remain unconvinced.. if they.. if they ...
A. ... if they.. how could.. if they.. we are 200 million people.
Q. If they defy you though ...
A. .. we are 200 million people. Who.. who are "they"? We are a people's army.. we.. we will never go against our people.
Q. But if a million people turn out on the streets?
A. If a million people turns out on the street.. if.. let us.. let us see. You see?
AMIEN RAIS
45.05 If the armed forces abandons Suharto for the sake of the whole nation I think we will be in good shape ah... but if the armed forces are not wise and then they identify they're interests with Suharto I think this if the doomsday for my country
glistening buildings... pan across Jakarta skyline at sunset until we reach the sun
46.26 Indonesia faces a period of dangerous uncertainty...No-one can predict for sure how long Suharto will remain in power..Throughout his reign, he has never allowed a possible successor to rise through the ranks....The Javenese have a saying for how you keep power, "there's only room for one sun in the sky". There is no serious challenger now to Suharto's power, but it seems inconceivable to think he'll serve the full five years....the internal pressures of social unrest, and the external pressures from the markets are feeding each other....If Suharto fails to resolve the economic crisis, Indonesia will erupt,.its down to the armed forces to determine just how bloody the end game will be....
military.
SARWONO
02.05 There's no need to elaborate on what starving people will do.
looting pics
ALITAS
02.14 We are aware that if something goes very wrong in Indonesia, it will not only be confined to Indonesia.
02.24 Over the years, Suharto has crushed all opposition ruthlessly, leaving the nation nowhere else to turn....and he's now more determined than ever to keep his grip on power..
JUWONO SUDARSONO
02.37 The drive for power is absolute. If you lose power, you lose absolutely.
02.42 What will be the cost of Suharto's fight for political survival? Can Indonesia survive Suharto's end game...
TITLE
bloke blows whistle, band starts up, Suharto drives up etc...
03.12 President Suharto is arriving at the start of the People's Consultative Assembly two weeks ago, comfortable in the knowledge that the 1000 delegates will elect him unanimously for another five year term.. the wisdom of this seeming vote of confidence in their aging President was questioned even by members of his own cabinet
SARWONO
03.34 Q. Do you think that the rest of the world finds it hard to understand why a country would re-elect somebody... who has led them into a crisis... to be the person to lead them out of that crisis?
A. Well.... I've been asking that question myself. I find it very strange. So I hope again... that somebody knows something that I don't.
delegates arriving
04.01 Any one of the delegates has the right to vote for another candidate, but the president knows he has it in the bag...half of the delegates were handpicked by the President himself, four of them are his own children.... Tommy is the youngest and brashest of Suharto's children, Tutut is the most politically ambitious, her father has just made her a member of his Cabinet.. Bambamg is one of the ten richest men in the country... and Titiek ?, she's married to one of the most powerful men in the Indonesian military her husband, General Prabowo, is also a hand picked delegate from the armed forces, often referred to as ABRI..
PRABOWO
04.44 How determined is President Suharto, do you think, to remain in office for another 5 years?
A. [CHUCKLES]..... I cannot answer for him, I cannot answer for President Suharto. But... so as a... how I think we know him for many years... I don't think he will er... he will not fulfil his mission CUT
Q. Do you think the economic crisis has in some ways made him even more determined.... to stay in office?
A. I think logically yes, I mean... no leader would like to step down without er.... without giving a good performance, I think.
delegates hovering outside assembly...sea of black hats
05.30 The delegates who not not appointed by the President, were elected in last years general election, but the list of candidates is vetted by the President himself... as a result the members of the two so called Opposition Parties are voting the same way as Suharto's ruling Party,... a number it has to be said have private misgivings, like many Indonesians they've lost confidence of President Suharto, and would like to see him go..
JUWONO SUDARSONO
05.59 One third of Indonesians were born after 1970, so it's understandable the people are tired of Suharto.. tired of seeing him.. want to see him go, including foreign journalists.
Juwono sequence being flocked by journo's outsdie assembly
06.12 Juwono Sudarsono is a first time delegate to the National Assembly...two days ago he was made a member of Suharto's new cabinet. He expresses what is a widely held view within the elite,..that precisely becuase Suharto has absolute power, stability and reform of the sytem, depends on keeping him there...
JUWONO
06. 34 I think er.. most peoples have always said that he is part of the problem.. he's become THE problem. I still maintain that he's the key to the resolution of a long term reform that is needed, because he is central to the system. The political system is too much focused on him, it's true, but er.. I believe that even with that over-concentration of political and economic power in one person, that particular focus has to be maintained for the next five years at least.
Mothers demo
07.17 Out on the streets many Indonsians are not prepared to wait that long...the economic crisis has given them both the courage and the incentive to voice their dissent....
In the lead up to the NationaL Assembly all demostrations have been banned..but almost every day in Jakarta a small group of protestors are determined to have their say...some for the first time...this tiny group of middle class women are protesting the skyrocketting price of baby milk...now way beyond the reach of the poor...
VOX POP JULIA
08.01 We're a group of convert... con... con... concerned mothers who are... er... in fear that the situation in Indonesia has become intolerable, and we don't have a say in any of this, but we have to...... bear the burden and we are the ones who have to put food on the table and it's increasingly difficult to do that. So now we thought of making this action to draw attention to the situation.
08.20 The roses for the military are an optimistic reference to the peoples power movement in the Phillipines, where the army joined the protesters to topple President Marcos, ...but Indonesia is a long way from that...the officer in charge is initially uncertain.... he calls to base, ..what should they do about the demonstration, with so many foreign journalists filming their every move?
they decide to break it up....
PRABOWO
09.14 I.... it's your opinion that it's broken up, but I think you know there are regulations, there are laws.... I think even in Westernn Europe to have a demonstration, you need permission 2 day's notice to the police and there's a route that's agreed upon. I mean you cannot just make a demonstration right in the middle of the centre of a traffic, er.... junction - that's what happened, I think, in the occasion you mentioned.
Q: If... if that kind of protest... is a problem, what kind of protest is OK?
A. You can have a lot of er... channels, you have petitions, you can go to the local assembly, I mean there are, you know, there are a lot of ways I think.
10.02 Back inside the assembly hall President Suharto is giving what's called his accountability address...a report card on his term as President for the past five years.
10.14 NAT SOT ..May God bless me with the awareness to report that what is unsatisfactory, is indeed unsatisfactory...
10.24 For the first four years,there was year after year of economic growth..but then.in his words, the monetray turmoil hit us so unexpectedly....
SARWONO
10.36 Well it's a.. like a.. slipping on a banana peel, you know, when you don't see it. Suddenly you.. you find yourself flat on your face in a.. it's not a.. a very pleasant experience .
sequence of President sitting down, looking like an old man...
10.55 The President's stature has been diminished by the crisis. His claim to poltical legitimacy was based on his economic achievements. Now he apears exposed, an old man floundering in the face of a currency crisis he can't control...trading at around 9000 to the US dollar, the rupiah has lost a staggering 70% of its value since last July.....
SOFJAN
11.22 Q: What will Indonesia look like in 12 months time, if the rupiah stays at around 9,000 to the dollar?
A: I'd say we are mostly bankrupts. Becuase already you see it now with this 9,000 rupiah per dollars, 90% of the big compnaies is already mostly bankrupt.
11.39 Sofjan Wanandi is a leading spokesperson for the Chinese business community...he's a wealthy man, but not one of President Suharto's inner circle...
Q: And what will be the impact on the Indonesian people, not just business?
Sofjan I think this is the most important things that we are facing because, if they don't have income.. because they are.. most them is unemployed already.. because I think most of the company is doing a lot of.. of.. of er.. laying these people out..
Q. ... laying people off, yeah ...
A. ... that is the.. the.. what we are.. we are doing, and it.. millions has been laid out already because of the crisis, you know
Jakarta
12.30 The crisis that has swept through the Asian economies, has hit Indonesia the hardest..
this is Jakarta, the capital....its high rise developments have ground to a halt, as construction companies go to the wall. Private corporate debt stands at more than $70 billion dollars. The crisis has exposed the weakness and corruption of the banking system, which lacked transparency, lacked controls, and lent money as if the good times would never end...
now anxious bank employees are gathered behind closed doors to learn if their bank will be amongst the few to survive. Down on the streets, unemployed workers turn their hands to other ways to scrape together a meagre living...the average annual income before the crash, was only $1000 US dollars, and that's more than halved ...
cooking oil sequence
14.04 The price of basic foods like cooking oil is rising... medical supplies are running short , and are now priced out of the reach of many families....Under pressure from the worsening crisis President Suharto secured a loan the International Monetary Fund, late last year...on the promise of undertaking economic reforms.. but confidence in the currency has not returned...
SOFJAN
14.18 Q. And what is your worst fear for the country if that confidence does not come back?
A. Well... I cannot imagines, you know, because people of 200 million, if anything happen, it's... it's so bad, I.... I... I don't like to think it about the... the... the worst scenario that could happens you know.
14.36 In a public relations exercise to show their confidence in the currency, these members of Indonesia's business elite, are attending an "I Love the Rupiah" campaign function. The campaign has been iniated by President's Suharto's children, before the crash his family's wealth was conservatively estimated at around $6 billion US dollars. The celebrity guest today is the President's second daughter, Titiek Prabowa. As part of the IMF reform package the President was forced to cancel some of the most controversial tax privileges and big spending projects, associated with his children.Titiek's multi billion proposal to build the world's longest bridge was on the IMF's hit list.. Here Titik is changing $10, 000 US dollars back into rupiah, that's what loving the rupiah involves...
Titiek vox pop
Q: Titiek, one question, do you think your family have been unfairly blamed for the crisis?
A: What do you think?
A: Do you think they have been?
A: I think so.
Q: Who do you blame?
A: Who do I blame? I think you can answer that, you know better than we do.
Q: Do you support all the measures in the IMF pacakage?
A: The government knows what to do.
Q: Have they affected your personal financial interests?
A: It affects all Indonesians all over Indonesia.
Q: Are you embarrassed by your family’s personal wealht in the current crisis?
A: What do you mean?
Q: By the amount of money your family has in crisis?
A: I don’t know where you pick up the amounts.
Q: Do you think it’s time for your father to retire form politics?
(Titiek walks away).
16.33 The IMF refrom package also took a swipe at the President's so-called cronies...a small group of businessmen who've enjoyed exclusive access to the lucrative monopolies and cartels that dominate the Indonesian economy..often in partnership with his children...
VOX POP
16.51 Who do you blame for the crisis? So many people outside because so many people oiutside can play with the money becxause money is commodity. If I have a lot of money I can play also. You see, like pound sterling, yen.
You blame the currency speculators?
Of course, for sure.
Not crony capitalism? Nepotism, corruption? One of very small. A lot of corruption, a lot of nepotism all over the world, not only in Indonesia, that is a part of problem but that is not the cause of this problem.
Bijan meeting Suharto
17.32 Bijan Aghevli is the Chief of the IMF mission in Jakarta, its his job to monitor the economic reforms
BIJAN
17.41 As always when you have an economy where there are lot of distortions in the system, strong vested interests develop because those groups benefit from those distortions.
Q. And very strong vested interests are resisting the changes?
A. Well I would be very surprised if they didn't,
CAMDESSUS
18.01 Back in January the IMF had reason to be pleased...Suharto had backpeddled on a previous IMF deal and the value of the rupiah had sunk even lower. A parade of world leaders had dropped in or phoned Suharto to urge him to take the bitter medecine to get the economy back on track..
The President was left with no real options... he signed up to a sweeping new 50 point IMF reform package ...new banking laws, lowered tarrifs, ending subsidies, allowing greater foreign ownership and breaking up monpolies and cartels - in return the IMF would provide a series of laons worth $38 billion US dollars...The head of the IMF Michel Camdessus witnessed Suharto signing away Indonesia's economic svoeriegnty, but he failed to appreciate that this was for the President a serious loss of face
JUWONO SUDARSONO
18.49 Unfortunately, Mr Kamdusu's (phon) crossed-arms stance in our terms, in the Indonesian terms er.. signalled the symbol of a stern school master admonishing his pupil, and I think it gave a wrong signal to the Indonesian political public, never mind the President who was er.. staunchly Javanese and nationalist. To my mind that was a very unfortunate symbol of arrogance on the part of Mr Kamdusu and unfortunately, it also provided the reason why the resistance against the IMF packet became strong among several groups in.. in Government.. and in.. and in the business sector.
BIJAN
19.45 There are, is some evidence that the groups involved in the ???? that why they may adhere to the letter of the decrease which was issued they are trying to find other private arrangements to get around this and maintain the ??? Now in Indonesia there are no anti-monopoly laws as such, however I think the general perception is that if the government is really serious, it can stop this in these areas and that's what needs to be done.
Night Street
20.23 The IMF had litle choice but to back president suharto...like it or not, there was never any serious dbout that he would be returned to the presidential palace...but ever since he personally signed the imf agreemnt, his committment to the reforms has been in doubt....the package would not deliver him the quick fix that poltically he craved to restore his credibility...and his family and friends were advising another course of action...the currency board...
Changing money scene...
20.50 If Indonesia introduced a currency Board tomorrow, these people would no longer need around 10,000 rupiah to buy just one US dollar..the Board would peg the rate at about five and half thousand, and guarantee to back it, no matter what. The upside is obvious..the value of the rupiah is instantly doubled, and President Suharto looks more like he's solving the crisis..
but its dangerous...once the Board has pegged the rate there's no backing off or the whole monetray system collapses...to hold the line Indonesia has to have enough foreign reserves to back every rupiah that's out there...they need a strong banking system and nerves of steel as interests rates soar.... few economists believe that any of these conditions presently exist..
BIJAN
21.42 These three conditions at this stage are not satisfied in Indonesia, so it would be very risky to put in place this currency board at this time in Indonesia, that's our view,
exterior of Hyatt
21.54 The IMF occupy rooms on 19th and 20th floor' of the Hyatt Hotel in the centre of Jakarta...
When the President revealed he was considering a currency Board the IMF was stunned and dismayed...they threatened to suspend their multi billion dollar rescue package...the currency board was put on hold, but two weeks ago the President announced he had another solution to the crisis, what he called "IMF plus"... is it the currency Board by another name?
BIJAN
22.27 What does the IMF understand by IMF plus,
A. I don't know if I can comment so explicitly about that because that is not, I can explain to you what IMF program is, that's very simple and straight forward.
Q. But the President wants IMF plus, do you know what he means?
A. I, as I indicated earlier there could be other measures he has in mind, could be still currency board at some stage, he is still considering and studying....
Q. You're not sure?
A. I don't know, no I am not sure what that...
Q. Does it bother that the President can stand up and say well IMF plus and IMF doesn't actually know what the plus is?
A. I think we are going to focus on what needs to be done in order to make the program successful and ah.... rather than get into the extraneous degrees.
23.25 What 's more worrying is that the government itself, doesn't seem to know...
ALATAS
23.25 what is IMF plus...
A. Well it is being worked out now. It is, for one thing.... it is not negating or diminishing the IMF, because as the term itself says, it is IMF plus something... and not IMF negative.... [CHUCKLES].... something. But of course, you are right, we need to... to fill in what is the plus. Well, what the plus is... in essence are.. the kind of measures or policies that will bring down the rupiah, accentuate er... viz-a-vis foreign currency and bring some stability to the currency as I said one of the most urgent dimensions of our problem. CUT
ALATAS
Q. Is the plus... a version to the currency board? (there is a reverse ),
A. Probably, we don't know yet. Er.. we are looking at it,
BIJAN
24.29 Q But the serious question that I want to ask about is it must be a concern to you that the indications are that the President doesn't have faith that the package alone will ????
At the present juncture we are Indonesia is facing a very serious crisis of confidence. A crisis of confidence which has been deepened over a number of developments over the last few months since October and everytime a program has been announced and it has not been put in place strongly that underlines confidence and the next step is that much more difficult to gain more confidence and this is a underlying problem here.
BIJAN
25.27 Q. But the question is are you concerned not with the markets confidence, but that President Suharto doesn't have confidence in the program because he says I ???
A. Those are the questions you will have to put to the President I'm afraid.
a week ago the next installment of the IMF loan was put on hold...
BIJAN
25.28 Q. Is there any question that the IMF would effectively pull the plug on the money? CUT A.Pull the plug doesn't exist in our vocabulary so that is not a term I would want to use. CUT Sometimes the authorities do not fulfil certain policy commitments and then they have to recommit themselves before we can proceed
26.18 Suharto's failure to resolve the economic crisis, is feeding the mounting disatsifaction with his poltical leadership
Rais emerges from the pit
26.31 Dr Amien Rais has only recently emerged as a serious player in the Indonesian political arena..
He's the Chairman of the 28 million strong, Muhammadiyah movement. Like many critics of President Suharto, he believes there's simply no hope for economic reform, while Suharto remains in office..
AMIEN RAIS
26.57 A No way, there is no way that we can be successful in reforming our economy without having desperately needed political reorm. I believe that ah... Suharto and his family cannot distinguish any longer between the interests of the family and the interests of the nation.
27.26 Muhammadiyah is a Muslim organisation, not a political party... this is ostensibly just a religious rally, but at the end of last year Amien Rais declared himself willing to stand as a Presidential candidate against Suharto
A RAIS
27.42 To be very honest in the beginning I didn't have any ambition to be president of this country. But I think I changed over time ah... because not too many people have moral courage to be presidents of this country....
the band comes out..the marching girls..
28.11 The backing of Muhamediya is what gives Amien Rais the moral courage to make that declaration..only two others have dared to put themselves forward....the first, Sri Bintang, is serving a four year jail term for calling the President a dictator at a seminar in Germany..the other is Megawati Sukarnoputri, who was ousted by the President as head of her party when it looked like she was getting too popular
AMIEN RAIS
28.39 Suharto is very successful in having management of fear, I mean the whole people have been engineered in such a way that everybody has fear and this way Suharto is again and again and again re-elected ah... for the Presidency.
29.09 When its time for Rais to speak, he does not directly say Suharto should resign,.. but he calls for, quote, "a clean leader who will deal with the corruption,. collusion and cronysin that is eating at the pillars of society". Its a popular message... But Amien Rais is also saying that Suharto should be given a little more time...he's not ready to take him on
A RAIS
29.45 I will give Suharto a fair chance you know. So, if after being a fair chance, Suharto does not perform, does not deliver, I think I will go down to the streets you know. I have er.... run out of my patience you know. I will tell the student leaders er... and the leaders who believe me to come on the street to organise, mobilise and mobilise peaceful... people's power - this is the only solution.
Q. You will bring the people onto the street.......
A. Not now, not now.....
Q. ... Not now, not now.....
PRABOWO
30.16 Q. When we spoke with Amien Rais, he said that he was prepared to.... allow President Suharto a period of months to resolve the economic crisis, but if at the end of a period of months, the situation was only worse, he would consider calling his people onto the street.
A. That's er.... I mean Rais' opinion.
Q. Is that something that ABRI fears?.NB .the reverse doesn't use "ABRI"
A. I think er.... Arbri .... is confident of the... faith of the Indonesian people in Arbri.... because we are a people's army and we... we are close to the people.
crowd goes mad
JUWONO Sudarsono
31. 43 Q. What's your assessment of the chances of Amien Rais becoming a future President of Indonesia?,
A. Almost negligible. I think he's a useful counter-symbol against everything that is seen to be wrong with the government and government policies. Er.. the same goes with Megawati Sukarnopudri (phon) some.. some year and a half ago. I think they're useful counter-symbols, but are not really powerful.
Q. And your view of their chances of becoming President are negligible?
A. Negligible.
Q. They have enormous popular appeal?
A. Popular appeal is not political power.
Q. Can't popular appeal translate into political power in this country?
A. It has to be translated. That's the problem. We are good in movements, but lousy in organisation.
wild applause
32.40 Megawati Sukarnoputri, the daughter of the country's first President is still the most popular politcial figure in Indonesia today...her appeal extends beyond this middle class audience into the urban and rural poor...but she's keeping a very low profile..despite declaring that she too was ready to be nominted as a Prediential candiate, this was one of the few public meetings that she's addressed in recent months...and it was held at her home...her supporters are disappointed that she didn't call them onto the streets, but like Amien Rais she has a keener appreciation of the politcial realities in Indonesia today...her natural caution tells her now is not the moment to act
NAT SOT...end of speech, punch into air
MEGAWATI
33.32 Q. A lot of young people we've spoken to... say they want... change... quickly... and that you're moving too... slowly for them....
A. Oh yes, of course, because they have fresh blood, er... very strong spirit. I understand what they are thinking, what they all... want,
- what is the meaning of now? Today, tomorrow or one year's more or one month's more - that... that's... but that's the moment. And.. I think the...
Q. [Interjects]...... For you is it a day or a month or a year or 5 years?
A. Oh of course it's not a mathematics.... it's not.. this is politics. [PAUSE] Yes, this is politics.
SARWONO
34.21 Q. There are opposition figures.. Megawati.. Amien Rais.. ???
A. ... ??? (laughs)... yeah..
Q. Not effective political ??? (inaudible)
A. Mmm. No.. not.. not in the short term, no.
Q. How long ???
A ... they.. they.. they provide a very s.. er.. er.. a very useful and.. and symbolic presence. A kind of a.. a taste of things to come, let's.. let's.. let's put it that way. But er.. they don't serve any practical purpose in the short term, no. I.. I'm not discounting their er.. longer term significance.
rice buying
35.04 It’s seven in the morning in the central market of Jakarta..A government rice truck has arrived with a load of subsidized rice... the El Nino drought has drastically reduced local rice production...the cost of importing the shortfall, is now four times what is was this time last year...even with subsidies, the price these women are paying for rice has doubled
troops up the car park...
35.34 at the back of the market unbeknownst to the shoppers, government troops are pouring into the multi story carpark... in case there's trouble..the most immediate threat to Suharto, comes not from an organised oppostion movement, but from the mounting anger and desperation of the mass of poor Indonesians unable to afford the inflated cost of basic food..the soldiers are here in case that anger erupts...
36.05 A nationwide food crisis is closing in....more and steeper price rises are inevitable soon.....Indonesia imports all its wheat, and a substantial amount of its soy bean and sugar consumption...The government simply cannot afford to keep up the subsidies, apart from the fact the IMF package calls for all bar the subsidy on rice to be swept away in the coming months.. outside Jakarta, food riots have already started....
SARWONO
36.39 Q. If the Government can't afford to keep the subsidies up, are you concerned that it will exacerbate the food riots that we've already seen in certain ...
A. ... it's a very serious possibility. Yes.
Looting...fires
37.02 In the weeks before President Suharto's re-election a wave of riots swept across the island of Java, with breakouts on other islands as well....
PRABOWO
37.12 Many of these things are... are... I think.... dramatised, over dramatised, I mean the western press... will come into Indonesia, you know, just looking for... er.... all... this dramatic er.... pictures of... violence etc. Er... we are concerned - yes, definitely but er.... I think on the whole, er... for the condition we're in, for the serious crisis, I think er... many other countries face worse situations.
burnt out shops
37.56 To date the principal target of the rioters has been the ethnic Chinese shopkeepers...they're easy scapegoats. The concern for the government is that as the crisis continues, the anger will turn on them...if violence erupts in the capital Jakarta, only the army will stand between Suharto and the mob...
JUWONO SUDARSONO
38.20 How much longer do you think President Suharto will remain the President of this country?
A. At the moment he is still very powerful. The most powerful Iinstrument of government is the army, and the army is in his hands...
the handover of power ceremony...
38.58 The armed forces are gathering In Jakarta for a ceremonial handover of power. Three weeks before his re-election President Suharto announced a re-shuffle of the top jobs in the military..these positions are critical, because its the army's loyalty that keeps Suharto in power...
39.21 The President gave the top job, Chief of the Armed Forces, to General Wiranto, he's also the new Minister for Defence. General Wiranto is a former adjuctant to the President so he's seen as a Suharto loyalist...but he's also tipped as a possible future President, if the army were to tap Suharto on the shoulder, and tell him its time to go
AMIEN RAIS
39. 45 I think the armed forces loyalty to the government is always qualified you know if the government does not carry out it's duty I think there is no any reason for the armed forces to support the government, and I think they have to say goodbye to the Suharto's government if the Suharto's government is ??? in this examination.
Prabowo being glad handed by all and sundry
40.08 The President also promoted his own son-in law, General Prabowo Subianto. General Prabowo is now the commander of the largest and most powerful single unit in the armed forces...37,000 soldiers are under his command...every one is keen to shake the General's hand, and pass on their congratulations......but he's not without his enemies...
General Prabowo's fast track up through the army ranks is widely resented, he's the youngest three star general in the armed forces...
Prabowo paints himself as open to change...
VOX POP...with South China Post..
Q: Is this a new generation for the military?
A: You can say that it ís a new generation. But on average we’ve served 28 years. We’re not that young.
PRABOWO
41.25 Q. Is there any section within the armed forces who feel a growing sympathy for... a more democratic system in Indonesia?
A. I think er... the younger generation in the... in the official core I think er.... are more aware of.... er... the trends and the aspirations that are going around in... society, so.... I think we... we will.... try to... er... accommodate and try to... be loyal to the aspirations of our people. And I think er.... there is room for more improvement in... a lot of our er... institution building.
Riot police
42. 12 But the claim to sympathy for democratic aspirations does not extend to allowing street demonstrations.......students in East Java were tear gassed last week, when they attempted to take their protest outside their campus...
PRABOWO
42.29 Q You don't feel that in any Indonesian society now you can have street demonstrations?
A. We.. we.. I.. I don't think that it's conducive to er.. to useful discourse, you know, because it can deteriorate always to violence.
choppers taking off in front of buildings
42.55 As the crisis escalates, the miltary will be confronted with critical decisions. How far are they prepared to go to crush dissent? How will they control hungry angry people...
At what point would they abandon the President and pressure him to stand down ?
PRABOWO
43.14 Q. If the situation does get worse, seriously worse in this country, is there a point at which it'll be better to change leadership?
A. Er... I think we have a.... mechanism, we have a... constitutional system that we have er... carried out in history, I think we will.... maintain that system and that mechanism.
Q. Do you think that a people's power movement is possible in Indonesia in the coming months?
A. I..... what I think is that er.... well you... you've been in Indonesia, you see... I think er..... majority of the people, I think, still believes in the Government and in the armed forces, I think. So, I don't see a mass uprising against the Government, mass uprising against the armed forces.
PRABOWO
44.12 Q. A lot of young people are determined to go out on the streets and demand change, They want to know bottom line questions like.. will you shoot them?
A. Er.. I mean it's not a black and white situation that you.. that you paint. We carry out dialogue.. we meet them face to face.. we discuss with them.. we try to.. we try to talk things out.
Q. But if they remain unconvinced.. if they.. if they ...
A. ... if they.. how could.. if they.. we are 200 million people.
Q. If they defy you though ...
A. .. we are 200 million people. Who.. who are "they"? We are a people's army.. we.. we will never go against our people.
Q. But if a million people turn out on the streets?
A. If a million people turns out on the street.. if.. let us.. let us see. You see?
AMIEN RAIS
45.05 If the armed forces abandons Suharto for the sake of the whole nation I think we will be in good shape ah... but if the armed forces are not wise and then they identify they're interests with Suharto I think this if the doomsday for my country
glistening buildings... pan across Jakarta skyline at sunset until we reach the sun
46.26 Indonesia faces a period of dangerous uncertainty...No-one can predict for sure how long Suharto will remain in power..Throughout his reign, he has never allowed a possible successor to rise through the ranks....The Javenese have a saying for how you keep power, "there's only room for one sun in the sky". There is no serious challenger now to Suharto's power, but it seems inconceivable to think he'll serve the full five years....the internal pressures of social unrest, and the external pressures from the markets are feeding each other....If Suharto fails to resolve the economic crisis, Indonesia will erupt,.its down to the armed forces to determine just how bloody the end game will be....
military.