REPORTER: Mark Davis
If anyone has personified the power of positive thinking it is this man - 34-year-old ex-mayor, former DJ turned media magnate, Andry Rajoelina. On the back of anti-government protests, he suddenly declared himself President of Madagascar and appointed a prime minister, Monja Roindefo. For now, they are lords of nothing. Within a fortnight they will be ruling the country. It will be a textbook coup against an elected president with two years left on his term.
REPORTER: Is it worth it - why not just wait for an election? Because more people will die - it's very clear.
MONJA ROINEDEFO: The question normally should be asked to him. Is it worth killing people in order to continue this system? That is the question.
When President Marc Ravalomanana was elected in 2002, he promised to fire up the Malagasy economy with new foreign investments. To some extent he succeeded. He also succeeded in firing up a lot of his own companies and becoming massively rich in the process. Nevertheless, he was re-elected in 2006. Ravalomanana may have become greedy or even corrupt, as the opposition accuse, but he was no Idi Amin.
His power wasn't soaked in blood until a horrific shooting outside his palace earlier this year.
More than 100 people were shot - it seems somewhere from 28 to 40 of them killed. The day of the shooting - February 7 - was the day that Andry Rajoelina first declared himself president and sent his freshly anointed alternative prime minister - Monja Roindefo - to seize the presidential palace.
MONJA ROINDEFO, FORMER OPPOSITION LEADER: When we were on our way to the palace - 7 February, we didn't have any weapons - even hand weapons. We didn't have anything with us.
REPORTER: Were there rocks or petrol bombs or...?
MONJA ROINDEFO: No, we didn't have anything at all and it was like an ambush. It was an ambush to kill us.
Andry Ralijon is a senior adviser to the elected president. He was inside the palace gates looking out as the crowd approached and the presidential guard opened fire.
ANDRY RALIJON, PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR: So they were running towards the palace.
For Andry Ralijon, the blood is not on the hands of his president but on those of the opposition for urging the crowd into such an assault.
ANDRY RALIJON: With the video, I am going to show you...
REPORTER: We can see for ourselves?
ANDRY RALIJON: Exactly!
Of all the footage from that day none clearly shows the moment of the shooting until Andry reveals this clip. It has never been broadcast.
ANDRY RALIJON: Here, there is a movement. The militaries are starting to step back.
He presents it to show that the crowd weren't just chanting slogans but were surging towards the gate scattering police and army before them. He is correct. It does show that. But it also shows a response that is staggering in its ferocity. He doesn't know it yet but Andry Ralijon is not just watching bodies fall, he's watching the fall of his government.
Until February, the battle between the president and Rajoelina looked like a personal one, a battle between two rich guys that turned sour when Rajoelina had one of his TV stations shut down and some of the President's businesses were burnt down in retaliation.
SPEAKER (Translation): He does not deserve to govern this nation. Who loves blood?
CROWD (Translation): Ravalomanana!
SPEAKER (Translation): Who is ordering killings?
CROWD (Translation): Ravalomanana!
MAN (Translation): Too many lives have been lost, so their relatives can’t accept the situation any more.
But now, since the massacre at the palace, Rajoelina has found a theme for the common man. The anger over the killings is palpable throughout the city, but now it is early March and Rajoelina has been having day-long protests every day for two weeks. The crowds are waning and the city seems to be growing weary of Rajoelina and his constant claim that he is the president. Businesses, big and small, are tiring of the rallies and the looting that often breaks out after them, many of them now declaring their support for the government.
ANDRY RAJOELINA: (Translation): For many years now… excuse my language… did Ravalmanana make them eat dirt? And now they suck up to him again!
Rajoelina is clearly a worried man. Now the crowds get no more than glimpses of him behind his hired muscle. He is extremely media shy and seems to be becoming paranoid. He believes mercenaries are out to capture and kill him and I'm told he thinks I'm one of them. Frankly, his movement looks like it is about to fizz out, until, ironically, the government comes to his rescue with a crackdown.
MAN 2: The military are blockading the entrance for all the demonstrators.
MAN 3 (Translation): Yes, we want to go over there but it is blocked by armed soldiers. The Malagasy are suffering – this is a dictatorship.
Blocking off the city square and parading a newly formed and equipped riot squad doesn't seem to be winning any hearts and minds. If anything, it just helps rejuvenate the opposition. Having seized the centre of town, police fan out firing tear gas at any groups in their path - protesters, workers or shoppers - hardly endearing anyone to the government's cause.
MAN 4 (Translation): It is not good with this Ravalomanana – it’s no good. In Madagascar it’s no good.
REPORTER: We've just been gassed again. It's a pretty effective crowd control.
Dispersing the crowds is just part of the government's strategy to regain control. Seizing the leaders of the opposition is the other part of the crackdown, as presidential adviser Andry Ralijon explains.
ANDRY RALIJON: They are guilty of coup attempt. They are guilty of organising looting. So, for us, it's very clear.
MONJA ROINDEFO: They are preparing a kidnapping against us, but, well, it does not change our determination.
It's the last I will see of Monja Roindefo for four days. Calls start to come in that troops are looking for him and he will soon go into hiding. And that night, his leader will follow. After a tip-off my fixer Guilot and I head out to Andry Rajoelina's home. We've heard that special forces have surrounded it and are about to attack.
REPORTER: It's a little bit strange. We're just at the top of Andry Rajoelina's driveway at the entrance to his compound. So, we're a bit wary about walking in at the moment because his own guards are heavily armed and if we walk in at this time of night, which is a curfew, we're probably just as likely to be shot by them as we are to be shot by the army if we suddenly turn up.
His compound was attacked, but Rajoelina managed to escape. He'll disappear for the next 11 days. It's rumoured that he has left the country. The crackdown has been going on now for three days. With the city locked down, protests have moved to the suburbs and the university. The riot squad have followed and it seems they are starting to fire more than just gas canisters.
MAN 5: Here we have something like 5,000 students on this campus.
The dormitories at the top of the hill give a prime view as the troops sweep through the streets below.
MAN 6 (Translation): There was a lady down there who was shot in the stomach with a bullet. She was unconscious – it was a real bullet. So what the government is doing is no good.
One of the protesters is shot. Another, a 23-year-old law student, is killed as she watches the affray from her dormitory room. Her death in particular - the innocent bystander, sparks a rumbling of discontent within the police and army. Journalists begin to gather outside a military compound when a rumour spreads that officers there are going to issue a statement condemning civilian deaths. That little stirring is soon squashed by senior commanders.
MAN 7: They are asking you to get away from here and go down there, because no statement will be given to you.
But in a side alley just off the base we stumble across an animated group of soldiers
GUILOT: I think they are saying something like "No more orders from our chief. We don't want anything from the president any more.” It's a real rebellion. And they are saying, "Let's go NOW!"
REPORTER: So, it looks like a coup.
GUILOT: It looks like a coup.
Within minutes of the meeting breaking up two picks-ups loaded with soldiers roar off in the direction of the main military base in the city. We follow.
They're fully armed and they're off on a mission of some sort.
GUILOT: They might be going to another military camp.
These two carloads of armed emissaries are either about to meet their death or if they reach their destination unopposed, sow the seeds to bring down a government. I am just getting out of here. The soldiers just got out all armed themselves and took up defensive positions. Everyone's running.
No shots are fired at them and after a brief stand-off at the gates they are allowed into the base, where it appears the message of their rebellion is well received.
REPORTER: Are the chiefs of staff meeting here?
Technically, the mutiny never spreads beyond this base, but from this moment on the government of President Ravalomanana is doomed.
Andry Rajoelina remains in hiding, but his protest movement springs to life again under the leadership of his alternate prime minister, Monja Roindefo. The position of the broader army is still vague. The whole organisation now appears paralysed with indecision, but over the next few days it becomes clear that at least 50 soldiers are openly onside. That's enough for the entire alternate ministry to emerge from hiding.
REPORTER: But now you've come back?
MINISTERS: We're back! Now we are very confident.
Rajoelina's Minister for Education and his Minister for New Technology - no longer on the run but driving through town with armed guards. Their claims to power no longer appear grandiose, their titles no longer absurd.
MINISTERS: The God is with us. It's very miraculous.
What a difference God - and 50 guns - can make. Presidential adviser Andry Ralijon appears to have vacated his office at the palace when I drop by - but he is still taking calls and hoping for the best.
ANDRY RALIJON: We still have some options. I do not believe that all the forces are really supporting those illegal acts. At this point, I don't know what to tell you. I just know that there are some options, but as each day goes by, the options are getting slimmer.
Over the next few days, the Minister for Defence suffers the ignominy of being locked in a military base until he agrees to resign. The crowd moves to seize the Ministry of Finance, with police and army standing by. Other ministries and offices empty out as the wings of the government start to fall one by one.
GUILOT: It's said that the members have gone to the Prime Minister at the palace to check it over. So we want to check, because here there is lots of news happening. So we are checking if it is really happening now.
Well, it seems that the rumour may indeed be true. I have just had a phone call from the transitional - or alternate - prime minister, who tells me he's heading with his people over to the prime minister's official office right now. That can only mean one thing. He's there to take power by force or by other means. We'll soon find out.
REPORTER: This is the palace, right? This is the palace. This is the seat of power here, right?
GUILOT: That's right. That's the Prime Minister's palace.
REPORTER: No trouble from the army then?
GUILOT: No trouble from the army. Not any more.
The army unit protecting the serving Prime Minister have stepped aside as Monja and his group of mutineers have swept into the palace. It's exactly a week since Monja went into hiding. The serving Prime Minister hands in his resignation and hands over the palace to Monja in a ceremony that is as brief as it is silent. The soldiers who have just let this takeover happen seem a little stunned. The handover may have been fast and simple, but totally complete.
REPORTER: Four days ago, I was trying to find you. You were in hiding. Now you are PM. Did you think it would be this quick?
MONJA ROINDEFO: Well, I've already foreseen it.
REPORTER: Did you think this week?
MONJA ROINDEFO: Yes.
His supporters may be happy, but Monja Roindefo is not celebrating yet. The stand-off at the palace was the first direct confrontation between his troops and those still loyal to the President. His triumph could have equally been a bloodbath and a counterattack could still lie on the road ahead.
REPORTER: You seem quite tense, quite anxious.
MONJA ROINDEFO: I am thinking too much... well, the charge of the office, you know? We are still in a crisis.
REPORTER: Yes, it's not over yet.
MONJA ROINDEFO: We are still in crisis. It's a handover of power in crisis.
The military are still saying they are neutral. In essence, they won't attack the President but it's clear they won't defend him either. That task falls to crowds of supporters who are gathering outside his home on the outskirts of town where the President has bunkered down. Some are here to defend and support Ravalomanana, others come to defend the position and the constitution from an illegal power grab. If this is Ravalomanana's last line of defence then bloodshed is inevitable - either his or a crowd armed with little more than bravado.
MAN 8 (Translation): We will fight with our bare hands.
Ravalomanana hits the airwaves with a rare public address.
MARC RAVALOMANANA (Translation): I want to tell you that I am ready to listen and I promise I will act on finding solutions to all your complaints.
His olive branch is too little, too late for Rajoelina's alternate ministry, who are now out in force. And they're in no mood to be negotiating with Ravalomanana now that they have him on the ropes.
MAN 9 (Translation): He is a killer and a thief - that is all that matters.
The church and the UN are pushing for peace talks. But the alternate finance minister bluntly states the position they are now in. There's no turning back now that promises have been made to the military.
MINISTER (Translation): We and President Andry Rajoelina said they could go ahead, we can not go back on our word - we have PROMISED OUR MILITARY BROTHERS.
If there was ever any doubt that the opposition's plan was to totally seize power there is none now. And it is a plan that is openly condemned by many international ambassadors, to the surprise and annoyance of Monja Roindefo.
MONJA ROINDEFO: They have never condemned any of the acts of Mr Marc Ravalomanana.
REPORTER: Whose representative being who sir?
MONJA ROINDEFO: The American Embassy.
REPORTER: I think the international concern is you're creating a lot of trauma in this country. And it's not exactly democratic because this president is mid-term.
MONJA ROINDEFO: Yeah, it depends on how you view what is a turmoil - his troops is crushing down the people - chasing the people into their houses and the students into their rooms. The international community has never condemned it, so, what is this?
Until now, the army have maintained they would not actively attack the President, holding to a technical stance that their actions were neither mutinous nor a coup. Those semantics are dropped today.
GUILOT: The army is ready to go to the palace and take the President out. They're ready to go because they couldn't bear waiting for a long time.
Within minutes of this announcement, city streets start to be blocked off. And as I make my way towards the palace downtown soldiers can be seen flitting in the shadows.
REPORTER: That's the President's office. He's at the end of the street, behind me. Coincidentally, it's also where my hotel is. I've just come from the press conference where the army officially announced they are now turning on the President. They haven't said that to date. True to their word, it's about 15 minutes later, and the soldiers are taking up position here
It was down this street, just the month before, that Rajoelina's supporters ran to their death trying to storm the palace gates. Now Rajoelina has tanks at his disposal. It's unclear how the palace guard will respond this time. There is a lot of firing. I don't know if it's return fire or whether it's firing into the building, at the moment. This is the exact spot where 30 people were gunned down here about a month ago. It looks like vengeance is being served today.
Within 15 minutes the palace has fallen. This is the office I was in just over a week ago watching the video of the government's account of what happened on February 7 - things have changed. Like presidents before him, the end of Ravalomanana's reign is marked with soldiers' boots in the hallways and his portrait off the wall. A bit of brickwork and some scary blessings and the palace is fit for its new king. With a bit of pomp but not much ceremony Rajoelina and his ministry swear themselves in.
ANDRY RAJOELINA (Translation): I take an oath for the world to hear, I will work hard, I will do my very best to protect the rights of the Malagasy people.
A few months ago most of the world viewed Rajoelina as the successful leader of a movement for democratic change. With troops at his side, and declaring that elections may not be held for another two years, that tag sits a little uneasily on his shoulders today.
Reporter/Camera
MARK DAVIS
Research
OLIVIA ROUSSET
Fixer
GUILOT RAMILISON
Editors
WAYNE LOVE
DAVID POTTS
Producer
ASHLEY SMITH
Translations/Subtitling
ROSELYS TAYLOR