Script
Is Sudan witnessing the birth of a new nation or the return to an old war?
Sudan – where Arabia meets Africa – endured the continent’s longest civil war. It ended in 2005 with the internationally brokered Comprehensive Peace Agreement.
That led to complex national elections in April 2010, which confirmed the dominance of President Omar al-Bashir in the north, and president Salva Kiir in the south. The north is largely Muslim, and the south Christian or animist.
The 2005 peace agreement stipulated a referendum in the south to decide on unity or secession. It was held over 7 days in January 2011. 3.9 million of the estimated 8 million southerners registered to vote. To achieve independence at least 50 per cent of the registered voters had to say yes, provided at least 60 per cent of the registered voters turned out.
In the event there was a massive turnout, with almost 99 per cent expected to vote for an independent south Sudan. Official results will be announced in mid-February.
Except for isolated incidents, the voting was peaceful. The voters showed patience and commitment as they queued in the heat or walked miles to isolated polling stations. According to international observers the polling was largely free and fair.
Voting by southerners in the north was very low compared with the south, but an estimated 180,000 southerners made their way home, by road or river, to vote in their homeland.
While endorsing the process, international observers did note some problems with voter registration, especially eligibility to vote, and a lack of voter education. Much assisted voting was recorded, though this was usually well-intentioned because of the very high levels of illiteracy in the south. Many examples of security officials, specially police, being present inside the polling centres were also recorded.
Nevertheless, it was absolutely clear that southerners voted en masse and freely – often passionately – for independence.
The referendum may have displayed the passionate desire for independence but it also showed the shortcomings of the fledgling government of south Sudan. Southerners living in the north – 2-3 million had fled there during the decades of war – were urged by the southern government to return home. Thousands came by river along the White Nile.
The gruelling journey usually took 2 and half weeks.
When they got to Juba port many were exhausted and some, especially children, were ill. All had a powerful story to tell.
In some cases clergymen brought their congregations with them.
INTERVIEW. STEPHEN TABAN, EPISCOPALIAN CHURCH. SOUNDBITE: ‘I WAS THERE IN KHARTOUM FOR 22 YEARS. THEY HAVE RELATIVES HERE, BUT SOME DON’T HAVE RELATIVES. YOU CAN SEE THE SITUATION HERE NOW. THEY DON’T HAVE SOMETHING TO EAT EITHER. THEY REALLY NEED HELP.’
Some came for individual patriotic reasons.
INTERVIEW; ESTHER JOHN, RETURNEE
SOUNDBITE: ‘I WANTED TO RETURN BACK TO THE MOTHERLAND BECAUSE THIS IS OUR COUNTRY. YOU COULDN’T LEAVE OUR COUNTRY LIKE THIS.’
This 84-year-old lady was crying with joy to come back to the land she had last seen in 1949.
Despite having to camp at the port, most were glad to be home, but complained about the lack of support from the government in the southernn capital of Juba.
The government did respond by setting up mobile clinics.
But jobs and homes for the many returnees will still have to be found in one of the poorest regions of Africa. Nevertheless, none of the southerners interviewed said they left because of pressure on them to do so, while they were in the north.
Many northerners – often Muslim businessmen – chose to return to the north either temporarily during the referendum, fearing rioting or looting, or in some cases left permanently. Many shops in the Muslim business area of Juba had shut during the referendum. The businessmen said that no local pressure had been put on them, though some had returned to Khartoum because of concerns among their relatives in the north.
INTERVIEW; AHMED MOSA SULLIMAN, NOTHERN BUSINESSMAN IN JUBA
SOUNDBITE: ‘ME? I AM A BUSINESSMAN. I DO MY BUSINESS HERE. THERE ARE NO PROBLEMS FOR ME. MAYBE THEY ARE AFRAID, BUT THERE IS NOTHING. I AM STILL HERE AND I LIVE HERE. I DO MY BUSINESS HERE. I HAVE THREE WIVES – ONE FROM SOUTH SUDAN, ONE FROM CENTRAL SUDAN AND ONE FROM WESTERN SUDAN. I AM SUDANESE.’
But other northern businessmen – many who had lived in the south for their whole lives – claimed that up to 5,000 merchants – in the countryside outside Juba – had not been allowed to get back their farms and shops which had been seized by the SPLA – the Sudan People’s Liberation Army – despite promises from the ruling party – the SPLM – in Juba.
INTERVIEW; SIDDIG MOHAMED KORAK, NOTHERN BUSINESSMAN WHO HAS LEFT JUBA
SOUNDBITE: ‘MYSELF I LOST THERE $50 MILLION DOLLARS. AND THEY [SPLA] ARE LOTTING EVERYTHING – GOODS – CARS AND TRACTORS. THEY ARE LOTTING SINCE THE WAR.
5. Future
Southern Sudan is scheduled to become independent in July 2011 as Africa’s 54th state. But many problems remain. The country is desperately underdeveloped, with less than 40 miles of tarred roads. 90 per cent of the inhabitants live on less than a dollar a day. Half require food aid. Corruption is endemic, and half of the budget has been spent on weapons.
The key issue is a settled border. Disputes, particularly over Abyei, still fester. Arguments over sharing the national debt have not been resolved. Nor has citizenship been resolved – this could become paramount to prevent the mass exodus of southerners ain the north and vice versa.
Southern Sudan is almost totally dependent on the oil – 80 percent of proven reserves lie in the south, but the pipelines to the sea from landlocked south run through northern Sudan. Peaceful cooperation makes sense. Talk of building alternative pipelines, though difficult terrain, to the sea via Kenya make do not make sense, because of the high costs and the probability that southern oil output will soon peak and then decline rapidly.
Border disputes could spark off war by accident. Much depends on the attitude of Khartoum, which loses one-third of its territory and much of its oil revenue. Some notherners are relieved to be rid of the burden of the long southern war – though the war in the west, Darfur, continues. Others fear that the north will become a harsh Islamist police state, whether or not Omar al-Bashir, survives a rumoured coup attempt.
Even if a resumption of war is avoided, south Sudan has to contend with numerous difficulties, not least the crisis of expectations of its people.
INTERVIEW; JOSEPH LAGU, VETERAN REVOLUTIONARY LEADER
SOUNDBITE: ‘I DON’T KNOW WHY PEOPLE CALL US THE POOREST PEOPLE IN AFRICA WHEN WE HAVE OIL UNDER THE SURFACE OF OUR SOIL. AND WE HAVE GOT OTHER MINERALS AND WE HAVE GOT GREEN LAND, AGRICULTURAL LAND. I DON’T KNOW WHY PEOPLE CONTINUE TO CALL US POOR.’
Tribal clashes led by dissident warlords are also to be expected. So will South Sudan be a democratic state? Dr Lam Akol is the leader of the group of small opposition parties who are challenging the dominant SPLM.
INTERVIEW; DR LAM AKOL, LEADER OF THE SPLM-DC
SOUNDBITE: ‘ THE SOUTH IS MADE UP OF A NUMBER OF POLITICAL PARTIES, A NUMBER OF TRIBES AND A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT RELIGIOUS GROUPS. SO IT HAS TO MOULD TOGETHER ALL THESE DIVERSITIES. SO THAT IS CAN BECOME A STRONG NATION STATE. THE WAY TO DO THIS OF COURSE IS START WITH A NATIONAL BROAD-BAED GOVERNMENT THAT RESPECTS ALL THE POLITICAL PARTIES.
The referendum was peaceful – so might be the reactions of the north. The state will be recognised, not least by their African neighbours. Nevertheless, a successful breakaway worries the African Union, which faces separatist movements throughout Africa, from Somaliland to Senegal. The UN and other international agencies have helped in the independence process. A new nation is about to be born, but whether it heralds peace in a very troubled region depends finally on the wisdom of the politicians in Khartoum and Juba – and not the diplomacy of the AU, China or the US.
Ends. 27 January 2011.