MAHATHIR’S CHANCES

April 1999

Protests on day of Anwar’s verdict

Syed Farid Alitas walking in corridor

Sivarasa in opposition ‘cabinet’ meeting

Sivarasa Rasiab (Lawyer & Reform Activists)

Taxis in street

Daytime driving shots of people on streets leading to protest, buildings and taxi cutaways

Taxi Driver 2 (Audio only)

Jomo Kwame Sundaram (Political Economist – University of Malaya)

Anwar Ibrahim entering court

Judge Paul leaving court after verdict

Anwar’s son in shock

Jomo cutaways

Jomo Kwame Sundaram (Political Economist – University of Malaya)

Hold Jomo MCU

Courthouse externals

Anwar slow-mo walking

Jomo Kwame Sundaram (Political Economist – University of Malaya)

Dr. Syed Farid Alitas (Sociologist - NUS)

Wan Azizab (Keadilan Party Leader)

Azizab going into court on judgement day

Wan Azizab (Keadilan Party Leader)

Dr. Syed Farid Alitas (Sociologists - NUS)

Jomo Kwame Sundaram (Political Economist – University of Malaya)

Sivarasa Rasiah (Lawyer &y Reform Activist)

Tim Lester PTC

Street vandalism in recent marches

Taxi Driver 2 – continued daytime views from Taxi of city, and internals of Taxi

Street vandalism in recent marches

Sivarasa Rasiah (Lawyer & Reform Activist)

Azmin Zabidi (UMNO Youth)

Dr. Mahathir walking to meeting

Azmin Zabidi (UMNO Youth)

Hold Azmin Zabidi

Mirror cutaways of Tim in cab at night

Taxi Driver 1 (audio only)

Sivarasa Rasiah (Lawyer & Reform Activist)

Mix to Prime Minister Mahathir meets Sultan of Brunei

Continue meeting with Sultan

Jomo Kwame Sundaram (Political Economist – University of Malaya)

Jomo Kwame Sundaram (Political Economist – University of Malaya)

The verdict many thought would protect Dr. Mahathir’s leadership of Malaysia, has placed it under renewed pressure.

The six-year prison term given to the Prime Minister’s most powerful enemy, Anwar Ibrahim appears to have re-fired anti-government rallies on the streets of Kuala Lumpur.

The real battle tough lies at the election. Dr. Mahathir has to call within the coming year.

Anwar won’t be a candidate, but as Tim Lester reports, the political changes stirred by his case are likely to be crucial.

Making sense of the last seven months in Malaysia isn’t easy.

It was known as a placid place, with relative peace among its ethnic groups, a democracy laced with authoritarianism Malaysians might not have liked, but most accepted.

Now, dodging chemical spray and tear gas, many wonder when things will get back to normal, or has their country changed forever.

The objective conditions in Malaysia for um radical political change are not there.

To some, like Singapore Academic Syed Farid Alitas, it’s like a blip in Malaysian history, more than a change of course.

Others, human rights lawyer Sivarasa Rasiah, among them, see a political landscape utterly changed.

It’s a key watershed in Malaysian politics as far as I’m concerned. It has lifted Malaysian political consciousness to a qualitative dimension that we’ve never seen before.

… and made political discussion that much more sensitive.

Even Kuala Lumpur cabbies are under orders not to bad mouth the Mahathir Government. On politics, they’ve been told, shut up.

It’s a very, very, very sensitive issue. It’s a very sensitive issue.

… so they won’t talk to a camera, but unidentified, some will give you a sense of what Malaysians are saying.

Everyone who into the taxi, everyone said Mahathir is wrong, Mahathir is wrong; Anwar is right.

You don't hear Mahathir supporters.

Um, there’s very, very few of them.

A great majority of people in Malaysia do feel that there has been a great injustice done by the verdict and the sentence.

On charges of using his high office to have police silence those making sex claims against him, Anwar Ibrahim is found guilty; the judge sends him to prison for six years.

The family of the man groomed to lead Malaysia is left in shock; Anwar’s career appears dead.

Now Professor Jomo Sundaram speaks as though the former Deputy Prime Minister is well on the way to leading profound changes in his country.

If Anwar wins this will be seen as a turning point, a major historical turning point in the history of this country. I can’t even think what it would be comparable to in other societies.

To Professor Jomo, the battle wasn’t in Anwar’s trial and isn’t in his appeal; it’s at the election due by next April.

Anwar can’t be a candidate from prison, but he can go on plotting the course of the push for change stirred by his case.

In Malaysia now, they’re debating whether an imprisoned reformer could possibly orchestrate the campaign that ends the ruling Barisan National’s four decades of power.

He has made tremendous in-roads over the last eight months, and arguably even over the last two weeks.

I think there are a lot of people who are critical of the Government, but who don’t necessarily want to see a new, different Government in power, a different party or coalition of parties in power.

I think a lot of people will support Anwar in the sense that an injustice has been done.

Most Malaysians would support him?

Yes.

Anwar’s candidate and the face of his campaign to finish Dr. Mahathir at the election, is wife Wan Azizah.

Beating Dr. Mahathir is a giant task, isn’t it?

David and Goliath.

You accept that it’s that tough of a task?

Of course, I am realistic. Who am I? I’m a novice compared to Dr. Mahathir. He has been in power for seventeen years. I am just now a housewife.

In fact, it suits the anti-Mahathir forces to paint her that way, but Wan Azizah has raced through her political initiation, speaking regularly to crowds in the thousands, and now leads the new party with perhaps the most important pre-election job of all.

I think people seem to be a lot braver than usual to come out and listen to these speeches, to gather at so-called illegal gatherings. Ah, but you know a lot of people do so out of curiosity, a lot of people, there are many people who are dissatisfied with some actions of the Government. It doesn't mean that they are demanding radical changes.

Now Wan Azizah leads a new Party with perhaps the most important pre-election job of all, to unite a scattering of opposition groups long divided, but all now sensing the fallout from Anwar might make the coming election their best shot at power yet.

Only a united front under the leadership of Anwar Ibrahim can pose a real threat to the ruling coalition.

It’s a big ask given one of the members vital to any opposition alliance has as its goal, an Islamic state in Malaysia, a notion that deeply troubles other key partners.

If all these parties come together on a constitutional, democracy platform which is, I think, quite possible right now, then they could present a serious bid to take power from the Barisan National.

The scepticism and anger opposition parties are relying on is widespread among Malays, but they make up a little more than half the population. The sizeable Indian community here and Chinese Malaysians with one third of the vote have to be won over if any opposition alliance is to have a hope of toppling Dr. Mahathir, and for now there’s little evidence that either group wants to embrace the push for change.

(Noise as rocks are thrown, windows smashed)

On the streets, the faces are overwhelmingly Malay, and the scenes of the last week, though not deadly, have been doubly disturbing.

Malaysians have watched closely, the fortunes of neighbouring Indonesia and they fear the possibility of mob rule.

What did you think about the vandalism in the streets; the fires and the breaking of windows and what not?

That’s too much, that’s too much. Because I am a taxi driver, I am living; I have to drive a taxi for my living so that day they make a mess on the road, so I can’t drive because I stuck in the jam; many hours.

The opposition groups know the damage is not just to traffic lights and windows, but to their chances of winning the election.

They now accuse plain-clothes police and others of the recent vandalism.

People paid to get into the crowd and start throwing stones; work people up; get them to break windows.

Paid by whom?

I think ah by persons in authority who don’t like the growing reformasi movement.

To discredit it?

To discredit it basically.

Just because we have groups of people shouting for reforms doesn't mean we have to worry. We have been reforming.

Azmin Zabidi is a senior figure in Dr. Mahathir’s party, UMNO.

He admits Anwar’s sacking and trial has hurt the party and the leader.

His image definitely has taken a beating because he has been seen as the front-runner if  you like, in this so-called split within UMNO. Ah, a lot of people have blamed him for this split.

Azmin Zabidi says UMNO and Dr. Mahathir will recover.

He’s still admired and respected by many as the man who steered Malaysia through some striking economic development.

Not all cabbies here take the reformers’ line that Dr. M. is done for.

For me I support, hundred percent Mahathir.

It’s quite clear his days are numbered Tim. That’s what this Anwar episode has done. It has shortened whatever longer period of time Dr. Mahathir was intending to stay. It’s become like a guided missile gone off track and heading right back to the guy who shot it and that’s what the trial has done.

Prime Minister Mahathir could wait up to a year while Malaysians forget about the trial, though another factor is now at play, and neither side controls the timing.

As he met the Sultan of Brunei last week, the seventy-four year old leader was still recovering from a fortnight in hospital; the official explanation – a lung infection.

It’s been ten years since Dr. Mahathir had heart bypass surgery; apparently this latest health scare forced him to abandon early election plans and had his doctors insisting he rest.

Two and a half weeks ago, ah there was a real possibility of an early election, ah but, but for Dr. Mahathir’s health, things have changed since then.

Dr. Mahathir is no doubt finding it difficult to rest. The recoil from his ridding the Government of Anwar has left him his toughest pre-election challenge yet.

But his record for winning, and his party’s mortgage on power in Malaysia until now, suggest he’s still likely to triumph.

And for Anwar that spells disaster; in this battle between two long-time friends and partners, there’s room for just one winner.

The historical record of this episode will very much depend on the outcome of the election. History unfortunately has very little time for losers.