Pinneberg, a suburb of Hamburg in Northwestern Germany, is a “bellwether” town, having voted for the winning party in every German national election since 1953.

(Natsot campaigning)

Danke, danke.

(Abercron meet and greet)

Michael von Abercron is a candidate for Pinneberg’s seat in Parliament for the Christian Democratic Union -- the center-right party headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel.

(Merkel campaign rally)

It’s riding a wave of economic prosperity in Germany and a popular feeling that Merkel offers stability in an uncertain world.

(SOT DR MICHAEL von ABERCRON/CDU Candidate) (in English)

My party is ahead now. // I’m sure //the Chancellor, Angela Merkel, will win this election.  

(Natsot rally)

(Broll German factories + F/S GFX  01 Merkel approval rating 64%)

Merkel manages the biggest economy in Europe. With a budget surplus for five straight years and record-low unemployment, a recent poll found 64 percent of German voters approve of the job she’s doing.  

(Natsot subway)

Talking to people on the subway in Germany’s capital, Berlin, we found plenty of support for the Chancellor.

WOMAN ON SUBWAY in German (NY English VO female #1)

She has been good for Germans. I like her very much. Over the course of the years, I think, it’s very good what she has done.

MAN & WOMAN ON SUBWAY IN BERLIN (both in English)  

She’s Conservative, but she often made the right choices, I think.

For the country in general, I think she made the right choices.

(FILE refugees arrive Germany)

Her choice, in 2015, to admit more than a million migrants and refugees from the Middle East and Africa has defined this election.

ANDREAS RINKE: She thought at this particular time it was a humanitarian responsibility.

(Walking shot Chris and Andreas, GFX book cover)

Reuters’ Berlin correspondent Andreas Rinke has covered Merkel since she was first elected Chancellor in 2005 and has written the book, “The Merkel Lexikon.”  

(Germany border crossing 2015-16….Berlin streets, then two shot)

He says Merkel wanted to preserve the European Union principle of open borders, which lets 400 million citizens of 26 countries travel freely across borders...an agreement signed in Schengen, Luxembourg, in 1985.

ANDREAS RINKE: She was convinced if that she started building, not a wall but preventing people from crossing from Austria into Germany that the whole Schengen area would collapse. And the Schengen area is together with the Euro is one of the two pillars of the European integration.

CHRIS LIVESAY: That must have been a big risk for her as a politician?

ANDREAS RINKE: It was at that time but she thought sometimes you have to take risks as a politician.

(NATSOT NY insert AfD rally / AP or Reuters)

Leading the charge against Merkel’s handling of the refugee flow has been the populist far right party, Alternative for Deutschland (Germany), or AFD. founded only in 2013.

Its campaign posters are distinctly-anti-immigrant. One depicts what looks like  vultures sitting on a gate and says: “A social state needs boundaries!” Another shows a pregnant white woman and says,“New Germans? We must make them ourselves.”

(NY insert Alexander Gauland)

Earlier this month, party co-founder Alexander Gauland said Germans “should be proud of the achievements of German soldiers in two world wars,” including the Nazi era.

(NY insert AFD rally // GFX then Gilders, Le Pen)

After riding a refugee backlash to surge in popularity, support for the party faded…as was the case with anti-immigrant, anti-EU parties in the Netherlands and France earlier this year.

CHRIS LIVESAY: What about the AFD, the Alternative for Germany party? How do you feel about that party?

WOMAN ON SUBWAY: (German) (NY English VO female #2)

I’m absolutely against it. I’m absolutely against the right wing.  We have a history that should not repeat itself. I’m German, and I’m proud to be a German but I don’t agree with the party’s program.

(Merkel, then Bundestag)

In the German system, people don’t vote directly for Chancellor.  If Merkel’s party retains a majority in the Bundestag, the German Parliament, she’ll remain the nation’s head of state.

(Natsot Shulz rally)

Merkel’s main rival for Chancellor is the leader of a center-left Social Democratic Party --  Martin Shulz..the party that was in power before Merkel took office. Shulz is campaigning on a platform that includes free education, more affordable rent, and equal pay for women.

(Natsot Shulz rally clip #31@ 2:12) in German (English VO male #1)

I’m making it very clear to you: it will be one of the first decisions of a social democratic-run government of Germany: the same wages for the same work at the same location for men and women, and we won’t rest until we achieve it.  

(Natsot Renner campaigning)

Also a member of the Social Democratic Party, Tim Renner is a candidate for Parliament in Berlin.  He blames Merkel for the rise of the right…by not tackling the immigration crisis sooner.

TIM RENNER (in English):  Due to the fact that Merkel did it the way she did it, it she opened up pretty much space for the AFD.

CHRIS LIVESAY: So she’s partially responsible for the rise of populist right wing politics in Germany?

TIM RENNER: Not willingly but unwillingly she helped them to grow. // Because there was for sure a situation where due to the fact she didn’t react beforehand, you had got the feeling it was out of control, and that was a momentum that AfD used for themselves, big way.

(VO Pinneberg refugees)

Germany has spent more than 30 billion dollars on the recent refugees, giving them housing subsidies and monthly stipends for expenses.  In Pinneberg, we met some Syrian migrants getting help at a community center.  This family, from Aleppo, was trying out a new bike. They’ve been in Germany six months and have learned to speak some German.

(SOT ALEPPO FAMILY)

Producer:.Do you like living here in Germany?)

Woman: (German natsound) (English w/subtitles): Yes, for sure.  And the people, people...good.

Man: (German natsound) (English VO): Germany is good. .

The family still must apply for asylum to stay legally.  But Merkel has refused refugees the right to bring over other family members.  Frustrated, and with difficulties assimilating, around 200-thousand of the new arrivals have left Germany.  

CANAN BAYRAM, GREEN PARTY CANDIDATE: I think the main issue is they left their wife and children in their countries. So most of them, the men, went first in expectation that they could take their families afterwards, and this doesn’t work.

The policy is scheduled for review in the coming months. In a recent debate,  Merkel promised voters she’d continue it.

CANAN BAYRAM: She denies the rights of the people just to keep the far right calm and to win the election.

(Merkel, Schulz, Afd, Bundestag)

While polls predict a win for Merkel, and second place for Schulz, all eyes are on third place and the AfD. It's been polling around 10 percent, and any party that wins 5 percent of the vote is eligible for seats in the German Parliament.

CHRIS LIVESAY: This is the first time a far right party might actually enter Parliament since World War Two. What does this say about this time in history for Germany?

ANDREAS RINKE: Well, it says we are like other countries as well, because more or less all European countries have seen this influx of right wing parties.// But I think it’s important to understand for the German election that regardless of how many percentage points they get -- 5 percent, or 8 or 15 --  they won’t be part of any German government. // It’s a political consensus among all the other parties that you don’t form a coalition with the AfD.

(Rinke, NY INSERT --Trump et. al. at G-7 Italy or NATO Brussels)

Andreas Rinke says Merkel’s case for a fourth term rests on her leadership of the European Union at a time when the U.K. is withdrawing from the E.U., and American leadership of the West is in doubt on issues ranging battling from climate change to standing up to Russia.

ANDREAS RINKE: I noticed since I accompany her on her foreign trips, that in China, in the U.S., in the Gulf States, they all said, ‘You are the one responsible for the Euro. You are responsible for fixing Europe.’

(NY INSERT -- AP STILLS MERKEL W/BUSH, OBAMA, TRUMP)

At 63, Merkel has worked with three very different American presidents  George W. Bush...Barack Obama...and now, Donald Trump.

ANDREAS RINKE: With Bush, it was fairly close. She liked him. But this relationship got her a lot of problems. Because he was not well seen in Germany, because of the Iraq war. A large part of the German population was against it, but she defended him. //  With Obama, it was fairly a rough relationship in the beginning. He was coming from a different political background. It took them a few years before they had a closer relationship, and in the end it was obviously one of admiration maybe on both sides.

CHRIS LIVESAY: What’s her relationship like with Donald Trump?

ANDREAS RINKE: "He's been in office half a year, slightly more. That's not a lot of time.l // But she sees it in pragmatic terms. Maybe they come up with really close cooperation in some parts, and maybe they still disagree on other issues like climate change, which is very important for her but that doesn't mean they can't form a personal relationship, as different as they are."

(VO Merkel and Trump at White House in March, then Merkel rally)

While Merkel has differed with President Trump on the Iran nuclear deal, she’s pledged to work together on expanding sanctions on North Korea and increasing German military spending for the NATO alliance...which she’ll have a chance to do if she wins another four-year term.

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