Precis

In Sweden they’re doing a "lockdown lite".

The bars and restaurants have never closed, primary schools and child-care centres have stayed open.

There have been some restrictions: high schools and universities are closed and aged-care facilities have been locked down. But social distancing and working from home are voluntary, recommended by a Government which trusts its citizens to do the right thing.

The architect and public face of Sweden’s unique approach is the country’s chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. His regular briefings, constant media appearances and ‘I’ll do it my way’ approach have made him a national hero.

"Before this crisis – he was like nobody for the Swedish people – now he’s a rock star," says Gustav Agerblad, who’s chosen to get a permanent reminder of Anders’ achievements – a tattoo of the epidemiologist’s face inked on his upper arm.

“I want to have the free will of my own and I really put the high price on that”, says Gustav.

But has Anders Tegnell got it right?

Reporter Lisa Millar presents a profile of a country debating the value of human life as the death toll mounts.

Compared to its Nordic neighbours, who enforced mandatory lockdowns, Sweden’s death rates are high. Its fatality rate is five times that of Finland, Norway and Denmark.

When we finally meet the man at the centre of the storm, he insists that his plan is working.

"This is a bit like having an ocean liner and trying to steer it with a lag of three or four weeks," Anders Tegnell tells us. "We basically still think that this is the right strategy for Sweden."

A visit to a Stockholm aged-care home, a sector which has borne the brunt of the virus, reveals staff struggling to cope with the demands of caring during COVID-19, and residents trying to remain calm.

And we meet Mirrey, daughter of a former Syrian soccer star who is devastated by the untimely death of her father who contracted and died from COVID after attending a church service.

After the elderly, it’s Sweden’s migrant communities who are suffering the highest death rates.

Mirrey blames the government for being slow to ban big gatherings.

"If it hadn’t been for that recommendation, then my dad would have been alive today."

Stockholm GVs

Music

00:00

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  When it comes to coronavirus, Sweden does it differently. No mandatory lockdowns here. The high-risk strategy centres on not doing very much at all. The goal – to minimise social and economic damage. It's controversial, but Sweden’s chief epidemiologist says it works.

00:09

Tegnell 100%

ANDERS TEGNELL:  I think the Swedish approach is at least as scientific as any country’s approach.

00:40

Drone shot. Cemetery

Music

00:43

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  But Swedes are still dying. The virus has already killed 5,000 – from a population of just 10 million. For a few days in June, Sweden had one of the world’s highest per capita death rates.

NURI KINO:  I don't know what to think

00:46

Kino 100%

or what to feel. The only thing I feel right now is of course, sorrow and sadness.

01:04

Drone shot. Cemetery. Title:
The Swedish Model

Music

01:11

Rail travel montage

01:19

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  In Sweden, they sing the praises of an unlikely hero.

01:26

Tegnell images on mobile phone

01:29

Tegnell press/rapper montage

SINGER:  “I’m Anders Tegnell, I don't give a crap. I believe in myself. A lot's at stake in the fire. I've been fighting… without help as if I was Anders Tegnell on the microphone. I don’t take weekends. No one touches me, as if there was a two metre border…"

01:33

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Anders Tegnell, mild-mannered Chief epidemiologist, creator and driver of the national COVID strategy. His regular briefings have brought him national fame and huge popularity.

01:46

Tattoo parlour. Zashay creates tattoo of Tegnell on Gustav

Music

02:02

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Stockholm tattoo artist Zashay Tastas is a big Tegnell fan.

02:09

ZASHAY TASTAS:  He’s kind of like the typical Swede – that’s probably why we like him, because we can see our father and mother in his beautiful eyes.

02:14

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Client, Gustav Agerblad, provides the canvas.

02:23

GUSTAV AGERBLAD:  I want it because I think he has done a really good job in this crisis that we are experiencing. When I watch the news and he’s standing there, I feel that we are in good hands.

02:28

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Both agree Anders Tegnell radiates a kind of dad-like Swedish cool.

ZASHAY TASTAS: He has big-dick calmness over him.

02:39

He's very competent and not braggy about it.

02:51

GUSTAV AGERBLAD:  I mean before this crisis, he was like nobody for the Swedish people. Now he’s a rock star.

02:55

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Opinion polls confirm it’s a sentiment shared by many Swedes. Most don’t want a tattoo, but appreciate the Tegnell approach.

GUSTAV AGERBLAD:  I want to have the free will

03:01

of my own, and I really put the high price on that. To have the choice of going to the store when I want, to have a choice to work.

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  But there’s not much empathy here for the collateral damage of the Swedish model, the growing numbers of corona casualties.

03:13

GUSTAV AGERBLAD:  Bad luck I guess. Sorry, that sounds harsh, but I mean I would rather have it like we have had it in Sweden than having it like in Poland or in China or in Italy, where they have closed down societies almost.

03:34

Complete tattoo of Tegnell

Gustav:  "Super cool."

03:51

Music

03:56

Tegnell walking to briefing centre with bodyguards

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Another day, another press conference. Anders Tegnell heads off to the crisis briefing centre.

03:59

Woman on bike passes

Female cyclist: "Good work gang!"

04:08

Tegnell walking to briefing centre with bodyguards

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Strong local support for his radical pandemic plan doesn’t translate internationally. 

04:10

As the death toll mounts, the stakes are getting higher. Anders Tegnell has recently received death threats, so now bodyguards go with him. He takes all of this in his stride.

04:17

JOURNALIST: Is there a fair amount of pressure in your daily life these days?

ANDERS TEGNELL:  Not that bad.

04:30

JOURNALIST: You’re one of Sweden’s most famous men.

ANDERS TEGNELL: It will pass.

04:38

JOURNALIST:  But isn’t there a certain something you like about celebrity?

ANDERS TEGNELL:  Not at all – I prefer to do my work.

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  And his job is to stay relentlessly on-message – combat COVID, but keep the country running.

04:47

Tegnell press conference at briefing centre

ANDERS TEGNELL:  We managed to keep society fairly open and our schools open at least, while at the same time delivering good health service to everybody who needs that.

05:04

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  This is not his first high-pressure assignment. Tegnell cut his epidemiological teeth during a deadly Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo in the mid-'90s. Now he has to explain to an increasingly sceptical world, why, despite the growing death toll, he thinks his strategy still works.

05:13

Journalist: "Do you think in retrospect now that actually trying to stop the disease immediately would have been a wiser solution, or do you still believe that this long term strategy is the way to go?"

05:37

Anders Tegnell:  "We basically still think that this is the right strategy for Sweden that we are doing. This is a bit like having an ocean liner and trying to steer it with a lag of three or four weeks. So I think we are too early to both say that Sweden was right or anybody else was right."

05:51

GFX:  Map showing Scandinavian population number

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  It’s a tough message to sell. Sweden may have a much larger population than its neighbours, but its casualty rate has been extraordinary. Unlike Sweden, the other Nordic countries enforced mandatory lockdowns.

06:09

GFX: Graph showing COVID-19 cases and deaths, Scandinavia.
Super:
Source: Johns Hopkins – June 21 2020

Today, the Swedes have twice as many confirmed cases as Denmark, Norway and Finland combined.  And the fatality rate is even worse -- five times as many deaths.  Despite this infection rate,

06:24

GVs Stockholm people

only 7% of Sweden’s population has developed COVID antibodies, well short of the so-called ‘herd immunity’ rate of at least 70% – that’s where so many people are infected the virus is, theoretically, controlled. 

06:40

Tegnell press conference

Some Swedish public health experts say herd immunity was always at the heart of the national strategy, but Anders Tegnell denies this was ever his goal.

06:58

Journalist:  "And a follow up question.  Do you feel that Sweden has become something of a global punchbag, and you know, taken on by people that believe in herd immunity – or believe in not having a lockdown – and therefore your strategy has become rather misunderstood?"

07:08

Anders Tegnell:  "Maybe. Sometimes I feel like a personal punchbag, but that’s okay, I can live with that."

07:26

Stockholm parks

Music

07:32

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Spring in Stockholm. The freedoms of the pre-COVID world never really went away here. The Tegnell plan relies on a national culture of individual responsibility, calling on Swedes to voluntarily work from home and maintain social distancing.

07:37

Mina and Mathias at home with children

Music

08:00

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  For couple, Mina and Mathias, ensuring they and their three children stay safe means following the rules.

08:06

MINA:  I think our policy worked really well when COVID first came. I believe people planned their grocery shopping better, and there weren’t as many people at the shops.

08:16

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  But compliance now seems to be melting away with the approach of summer.

08:28

Mina interview

MINA:  I think it’s good that we have a more open and relaxed attitude. I don’t believe in shutting down society but still feel safe in the Swedish model.

08:38

Mina with children in garden

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Mina, who works as assistant director of an aged-care facility, has just recovered from COVID.  To protect patients and staff, Mina self-isolated at home when she had symptoms.

08:50

Mina and Mathias

MINA:  About two weeks ago, I found out that I’ve actually had COVID and I had very mild symptoms. I only had a cough for three days and was tired. I feel really good now. I’m very relieved that I’ve had it.

09:05

MATHIAS: I don’t know if I’ve had it but I think so. You live close to each other in a family. I’ve had a cold and a bit of a sore throat but nothing serious.  That may have been a very mild version of Corona... or not. You hope so, but you don’t know.

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  For Mathias, confirming a COVID diagnosis would’ve been difficult.

09:20

Barbecue. Mina, Mathias and children

Until recently, Sweden did very little community COVID testing. With a nationwide shortage of kits, testing was mainly reserved for the very sick, or those in high risk occupations, such as Mina.

09:47

Mina interview

MINA:  They say you don’t know how long you have antibodies so it gives a sense of security right now, but in a few months I may not have antibodies anymore. Nobody knows. So I’m still really careful and when we go shopping. I think about where I go and how close to people I get in the shops.

10:02

Family barbecue

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Much of Sweden has stayed open for business during the pandemic. The GDP is predicted to fall by 7%, that’s not as bad as the UK or Italy, but really no better than its Nordic neighbours who did lock down.

10:25

Yet Mina believes the economy would have taken a bigger hit without the Swedish Model.

10:42

Mina interview

MINA: I believe that Sweden will gain its feet faster than many other countries, because I don’t think our economy will be as affected as many other countries. Of course there are people who have been affected more severely in Sweden, who have actually lost their jobs, but I think we will fare better.

10:48

Aged care facility by lake

[singing]

11:12

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Many of Sweden’s pandemic hotspots are located in the genteel surrounds of Stockholm’s aged care facilities.

11:19

Aged care residents watch performance

The government did impose lockdowns on old people’s homes, but now concedes the order came too late, and casualties have been high. Of more than 5,000 deaths nationally, 88% are over 70 years of age, many of them in retirement villages. Team leader Romana Wild admits it’s been tough for residents and staff. 

11:27

ROMANA WILD:  It’s been very difficult. We’ve had a very challenging time.

11:57

Romana interview

There have actually been more sick people amongst staff than residents. We have managed to protect our residents very well, but it has been extremely tough.  We’ve seen several ladies cry as they feel disheartened by their situation. The entertainment is a good distraction.

12:02

Residents watch performance

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  There are 350 residents here. Some have got sick and died, but no one really knows if its due to COVID because of a nationwide lack of comprehensive testing.

12:27

ROMANA WILD:  We’ve had some cases, but we haven’t tested everyone, so it’s impossible to know for sure.

12:40

Romana interview

Some have passed away quickly and suddenly, and we suspect that some of them had COVID.

12:48

Romana walks with Luli to Annika in garden

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  After two months of lockdown, restrictions are being cautiously eased.

ROMANA WILD:  Relatives can schedule a time to come visit. For those meetings we pull out a big plexiglass screen and then they get their 20 minutes.

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  This is the first time Annika Elfström – has seen her mother Luli since March.

13:00

Annika interview/Annika and Luli either side of screen

ANNIKA:  In the last two months of visitation restrictions, my mum turned 80. Sadly, we couldn’t celebrate like we like we wanted to and had planned for. That was very unfortunate.

13:28

I continue to hope and believe that we have chosen the best strategy, but I think it’s too early to know for sure. It’s going to take a long time. I do believe that we have made the right decision.

13:40

Music

13:54

Tegnell in office

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Anders Tegnell now concedes that too many have died in aged care facilities, but insists the broader strategy is still on track.

13:59

ANDERS TEGNELL: The failings is the high death toll among the people in the long term care facilities. And that of course is a big failure

14:11

Tegnell interview in corridor

that we really wish we could have done something about. We are doing a lot of things now and we see that the number of cases in those facilities are slowly falling and so we believe that even that can be rectified and our strategy will be even more sustainable.

14:19

Drone shot over cemetery

Music

14:35

New graves in cemetery

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Sweden’s ethnic minorities have also been hit hard.

14:44

Mirrey in cemetery

MIRREY GOURIE:  Here we see really new graves and the majority have died from COVID-19.

14:50

Mirrey walks in churchyard cemetery

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Mirrey Gourie’s father, Josef, died of coronavirus the day before his 64^th birthday.

15:02

Mirrey places flowers on grave

MIRREY GOURIE: I usually walk here in the morning, early, because there are fewer people here, then I arrive, visit my dad of course and think how could this have happened.

15:10

Photo. Josef with Syrian soccer team members

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Fit and active, Josef was goalkeeper on the national soccer team of his native Syria before he emigrated to Sweden in 1990 with his wife and three children.

15:26

Mirrey at Josef's grave

When the pandemic struck, he was carefully following the recommendations issued by Anders Tegnell and his team.

15:39

MIRREY GOURIE:  Dad only moved between his home, his work at Hemkop and the church.

15:48

Mirrey interview

On March 15^th he was at church; a church ceremony, and we found out that many people became sick after that ceremony. So there’s a big chance he got it at church.

15:56

Mirrey at Josef's grave

Music

16:07

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Just days later, the government recommended that the maximum number for a gathering be reduced from 500 to 50, but it was too late for Josef.

16:11

MIRREY GOURIE:  It was wrong, because my dad wouldn’t have had to die if it hadn’t been for that recommendation. Then my dad would have been alive today.

16:23

Mirrey and others at graves

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Mirrey’s family lives in Stockholm’s northern suburbs. This predominantly migrant area is one of the worst hit in Sweden, with infection rates up to three times higher than the rest of the Stockholm region.

16:41

Drone shot cemetery

From home to hospital to grave – a disproportionate number of victims are foreign born–mainly Somali, Iraqi and Syrian.

17:00

Cemetery

MIRREY GOURIE:  I think this is the proof about what really is happening in our society in Sweden.

17:15

Drone shot. Blocks of flats in migrant suburb

Music

17:21

GVs Migrant people

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Over the past decade there’s been a dramatic shift in Sweden’s demographic.  A quarter of the population now has a migrant background.

17:29

Nuri driving

Nuri: “And here, coming up on the right, is a quite new Syriac Orthodox Church.”

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Writer and activist, Nuri Kino, has focussed on the pandemic’s effects on his own community of Christian Assyrians.

17:40

He blames the health authorities for misunderstanding the different social structures of migrant communities, and for failing to effectively warn of the dangers.

17:59

NURI KINO: The information that came to immigrant districts or areas was delayed, confusing and even in wrong languages.

18:11

People live close to each other and some of them have also their parents and their grandparents in their homes. We socialise differently, the culture is different to the Swedish ethnic culture when it comes to social life.

18:23

It's one also another of the reasons why we were more affected by the coronavirus, unfortunately.

18:42

Migrant neighbourhood. Shops closed

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  In stark contrast to confident, bustling downtown Stockholm, the streets in Nuri’s old neighbourhood are now eerily quiet.

18:50

Nuri walking through neighbourhood

NURI KINO: So this is Kineta, where I grew up.  If I come here I always meet relatives and friends, children of friends. Usually there’s a lot more people out on their balconies. People have become aware of the situation and are more cautious, because everyone here more or less knows someone that has passed away.

19:01

Nuri walks past relatives' apartments

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Nuri's aunt recently died from the virus.

NURI KINO:  That's my aunt's apartment -- the middle one -- and now she's gone. We spent so much time there. I have so many memories from that balcony.

19:34

Nuri talks with Yusef

Nuri: "Yusef!"

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  He watches out for older, vulnerable family members.

19:57

NURI KINO:  So this is my cousin – my oldest cousin. So he’s more like an uncle. And that’s his wife – actually, also my second cousin. And yeah, they’re like my uncle and my aunt.

20:10

Nuri talks with aunt and uncle in Arabic, then translates

[Arabic]

20:23

[translates] "We are very scared… We are, you know, in the risk groups both of us… And we are scared that if we get infected, we would probably not survive. We wouldn't make it."

20:30

Blocks of flats in migrant neighbourhood

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  Anders Tegnell admits immigrant communities should have been better protected, but says government policies are not entirely to blame for the high death toll.

20:50

ANDERS TEGNELL:   I think one thing is that the disease came into those communities very early on when very few people had an awareness of what was happening. I think that’s part of the reason. The other part of the reason is of course they are living with generations together, living fairly cramped.

21:01

Tegnell interview in corridor

There is definitely a socio-economic aspect to this disease which can be shown in many countries.

21:20

Uni students on lawn in park

Music

21:25

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  As the death toll rises, anger’s growing in Sweden’s scientific community. Twenty-two leading doctors, virologists and researchers called for the Swedish Model to be replaced by the 'Go hard, Go early’ pandemic responses of other Nordic countries.

21:28

Hanson walking  in park

One of the dissidents is infectious diseases expert Dr Stefan Hanson.

21:47

STEFAN HANSON:  I woke up in the night, because I was thinking this is terrible, people are dying, and we are letting the infection spread.

21:54

Hanson interview in park

From the very start they didn’t believe it was going to become an epidemic in Sweden at all, so they didn’t take any measures to be prepared for an epidemic. The attitude is taking things too lightly and not to causing panic. 

22:02

Young people in park

And then they also had in the back of their mind, okay, we are going to create herd immunity, so we don’t mind too much if young people are infected. The problem is that I don’t see any science.

22:26

Hanson

There is no scientific background to this strategy.

22:40

Hanson and team testing in shopping centre

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  In a migrant neighbourhood, Stefan Hanson’s team sets up shop. His clinic offers an immediate test for COVID-19 antibodies, confirming they’ve already caught the virus.

22:46

STEFAN HANSON:  Today we are checking antibodies in a suburb of Stockholm, where we know there have been quite a lot of cases of corona infection. 

23:03

So the people here are, they are almost all immigrants; this is a particularly Somali area.

23:15

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  For months the government did very little community testing, so Stefan Hanson collaborates with a local university that donated these kits.

23:23

STEFAN HANSON:  Swedish testing is very much behind schedule. We are actually doing this to get our own opinion and to move things, to get an idea of what is going on here.

23:32

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  In the eagerness to get tested, social distancing is forgotten. Positive results are common.

23:45

Stefan gives results to young man

Stefan:  "Slightly positive, you can see it here."

Nurse:  "You've had it."

Man: "I knew it. That's why I spent about a month in my room. Thank you."

23:56

Testing in shopping centre continues

STEFAN HANSON:  So the last gentleman, a Somali man, he had symptoms three months ago and he has got weak positivity. With the testing automatically comes contact tracing, because according to the law it is obligatory to follow up. This has not taken place to a large extent, because after Stockholm saw that there was too much spread in society and they couldn’t cope, they gave it up.

24:11

We are just trying to do this to be able to show that what the government and the regions are doing is not sufficient. They have to do more.

24:45

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  There are just 24 test kits. Eventually the team has to turn people away.

24:56

Hanson and nurse pack up

STEFAN HANSON:  Three positives today out of 24, so some 8 or 9%. We could test everybody here, for sure, we could test the whole day. The government is doing nothing. Just standing there and doing nothing.

25:04

Waterside Stockholm restaurants

Music

25:27

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  All appears comfortable and relaxed in the Stockholm spring sunshine. With the pandemic subsiding in the rest of Scandinavia, travel restrictions are now being lifted. But the borders with Sweden remain closed due to the high ongoing infection rate here.

24:35

Graduation celebrations

None of this cramps the style of the class of 2020.

25:54

It’s party time, complete with traditional graduation caps.

26:06

Music

26:15

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  They’re full of youthful confidence in the future. COVID restrictions have scaled back celebrations, but life goes on, thanks to Anders Tegnell.

26:28

Church interior

Behind closed doors the other Sweden is gripped by fear and grief.

26:44

Nuri and mother watch church service on computer

Community activist, Nuri Kino has moved in with his elderly mother to support her in isolation.

NURI KINO:  This is the church that I belong to – that I’m a member – my family – we are members of this church. 

26:57

All in all, we lost 22 people – two deacons, relatives of mine, friends, friends’ parents. It’s just devastating.

27:15

Mother watches church service on computer

LISA MILLAR, Presenter:  The livestream of the Sunday service provides some comfort, but also emphasises the absence of family and friends.

27:30

Mother on video call with friends

This is one community losing faith with their adopted homeland.

NURI KINO:  The only thing I know is that it didn't work for the elderly, and it didn't work for immigrant groups. It didn't work for foreign-born

27:51

Church service

and their children and grandchildren. It's just so sad. I hope that we will learn from this.

28:10

Credits [see below]

28:23

Out point

28:57